The School of Odds
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Auckland FC v Wellington Phoenix FC

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 05:00 UTC

Final: Auckland FC 0–0 Wellington Phoenix FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Auckland FC (Local)

Prediction 40.33%2.48fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.34%40.33%40.38%42.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.252.252.4051.02%44.42%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit)

Prediction 33.54%2.98fair odd
EV +7.33%
Edge +2.29%
Kelly +3.33%
Growth +0.244%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.26%33.54%33.77%34.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.852.803.2042.55%35.10%35.71%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.13%3.83fair odd
EV -5.93%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.65%26.13%25.86%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.433.503.6033.33%29.12%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Auckland FC (Local): 40.33%; Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit): 33.54%; Draw: 26.13%. For Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.47%EV -8.05%E -3.53%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.26%EV +7.33%E +2.29%K +3.33%G +0.244%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%EV -7.23%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-07 04:40
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.47%EV -8.05%E -3.53%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.26%EV +7.33%E +2.29%K +3.33%G +0.244%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%EV -7.23%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-07 04:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.42%EV -9.26%E -4.11%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.30%EV +5.65%E +1.79%K +2.63%G +0.148%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-07 04:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.42%EV -9.26%E -4.11%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.30%EV +5.65%E +1.79%K +2.63%G +0.148%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-07 04:12
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.42%EV -9.26%E -4.11%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.30%EV +5.65%E +1.79%K +2.63%G +0.148%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-07 04:40
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.27%EV -10.06%E -4.51%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV +3.97%E +1.28%K +1.89%G +0.075%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -9.85%E -2.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-07 04:40
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.27%EV -10.06%E -4.51%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV +3.97%E +1.28%K +1.89%G +0.075%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -9.85%E -2.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-07 04:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -11.27%E -5.12%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV +2.30%E +0.752%K +1.12%G +0.026%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-07 04:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -11.27%E -5.12%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV +2.30%E +0.752%K +1.12%G +0.026%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-07 04:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -13.29%E -6.18%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -1.06%E -0.359%K -0.543%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -13.77%E -4.17%K -5.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-07 04:40
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -13.29%E -6.18%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -1.06%E -0.359%K -0.543%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -13.77%E -4.17%K -5.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-07 04:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.95%EV -13.69%E -6.40%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -1.06%E -0.359%K -0.543%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -15.07%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000%11.4%2026-11-07 04:40
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -2.74%E -0.943%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-07 04:55
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -9.26%E -4.11%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -4.41%E -1.55%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.85%E -2.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 04:55
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -9.26%E -4.11%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -4.41%E -1.55%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.85%E -2.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 04:55
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.09%E -2.17%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-07 04:55
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.09%E -2.17%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-07 04:54
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -3.21%E -1.34%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.77%E -2.82%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-07 04:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -3.21%E -1.34%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.77%E -2.82%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-07 04:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.68%EV -4.42%E -1.86%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -7.77%E -2.82%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 04:55
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.68%EV -4.42%E -1.86%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -7.77%E -2.82%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 04:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.77%E -2.82%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-07 04:55
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.77%E -2.82%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-07 03:50
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.26%E -4.11%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.77%E -2.82%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 03:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -9.26%E -4.11%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -7.77%E -2.82%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-07 04:55
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.23%E -2.22%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.44%E -3.50%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-07 04:55
picklebet_au🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.44%E -3.50%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-07 04:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 42.03%EV -20.95%E -10.69%K -21.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.51%EV -9.44%E -3.50%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.46%EV -21.61%E -7.20%K -10.80%G +0.000%21.4%2026-11-07 04:40
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -4.02%E -1.69%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -12.13%E -4.63%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-07 04:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.61%EV -11.27%E -5.12%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.98%EV -16.15%E -6.46%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.40%EV -18.99%E -6.13%K -9.04%G +0.000%17.7%2026-11-07 04:37
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.34%EV -15.31%E -7.29%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.43%EV -19.51%E -8.13%K -13.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.23%EV -17.69%E -5.62%K -8.23%G +0.000%21.0%2026-11-07 04:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 38.56%EV -15.31%E -7.29%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 34.45%EV -21.18%E -9.01%K -15.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 26.99%EV -21.61%E -7.20%K -10.80%G +0.000%23.5%2026-11-07 04:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.06%1.0%2026-11-07 04:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.58%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-11-07 04:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.58%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-11-07 04:55
Matchbook◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.36%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.73%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.92%1.5%2026-11-07 04:55
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 41.28%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%4.0%2026-11-07 04:55
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.29%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.07%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.64%4.3%2026-11-07 04:55

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