The School of Odds
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Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory

2026-11-08 06:00 UTC — A-League

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide United (Local)

Prediction 36.82%2.72fair odd
EV -6.12%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -3.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.56%36.82%36.82%37.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.502.5543.48%40.80%40.00%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Victory (Visit)

Prediction 36.82%2.72fair odd
EV -6.12%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -3.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.56%36.82%36.82%37.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.502.5543.48%40.80%40.00%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.37%3.79fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.661%
Kelly -0.906%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.13%26.37%26.37%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.483.403.7030.30%28.72%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Adelaide United (Local): 36.82%; Melbourne Victory (Visit): 36.82%; Draw: 26.37%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.70, with an expected value of -2.45%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.12%E -2.40%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.12%E -2.40%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -2.45%E -0.661%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 17:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.08%EV -7.59%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.08%EV -7.59%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -5.08%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 18:02
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.96%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.96%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.08%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 18:03
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.96%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.96%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -10.36%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 18:03
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.96%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.96%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -10.36%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 18:03
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.96%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.96%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -10.36%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 18:03
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.96%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.96%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -10.36%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 18:03
picklebet_au🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.80%E -4.00%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.80%E -4.00%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -5.08%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 17:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.43%EV -13.48%E -5.74%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.43%EV -13.48%E -5.74%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -7.72%E -2.21%K -3.09%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-25 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.36%EV -15.32%E -6.66%K -11.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.36%EV -15.32%E -6.66%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.27%EV -10.36%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-25 17:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.08%EV -15.32%E -6.66%K -11.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.08%EV -15.32%E -6.66%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.84%EV -12.99%E -3.94%K -5.65%G +0.000%17.3%2026-10-25 18:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.