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Velez Sarsfield BA v San Lorenzo

2026-10-31 22:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prediction 47.36%2.11fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.68%47.38%47.29%48.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.921.912.0356.82%52.22%52.36%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Lorenzo (Visit)

Prediction 22.93%4.36fair odd
EV -5.97%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.03%22.88%23.01%24.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.913.994.1027.78%25.58%25.06%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.71%3.37fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.39%29.74%29.70%30.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.043.053.2035.09%32.95%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 47.36%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 22.93%; Draw: 29.71%. For Velez Sarsfield BA (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.03, with an expected value of -3.86%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.77%EV -3.86%E -1.90%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.27%EV -6.43%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.95%EV -5.83%E -1.84%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 19:54
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.97%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -4.94%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 19:09
SportsBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.96%EV -5.75%E -2.89%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.67%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 18:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.74%EV -5.75%E -2.89%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -7.91%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 19:49
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.65%E -3.92%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.91%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 18:50
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -9.54%E -5.00%K -10.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.91%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-18 18:45
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -9.54%E -5.00%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -12.85%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -10.88%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 18:49
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.68%EV -9.54%E -5.00%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -17.44%E -4.84%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -13.85%E -4.78%K -7.29%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-18 19:07
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.41%EV -11.91%E -6.40%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -12.85%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.39%EV -10.88%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-18 18:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -12.38%E -6.69%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.22%EV -8.72%E -2.19%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.98%EV -12.37%E -4.19%K -6.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-18 18:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.18%EV -13.80%E -7.58%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.21%EV -15.14%E -4.09%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.61%EV -13.85%E -4.78%K -7.29%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-18 18:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 48.20%EV -16.65%E -9.46%K -21.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.03%EV -11.70%E -3.04%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.77%EV -15.34%E -5.38%K -8.29%G +0.000%17.9%2026-10-18 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 32.74%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%170.3%2026-10-18 23:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 32.74%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%170.3%2026-10-18 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-18 21:45