The School of Odds
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Velez Sarsfield BA v San Lorenzo

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 22:15 UTC

Final: Velez Sarsfield BA 2–2 San Lorenzo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prediction 50.10%2.00fair odd
EV -4.31%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -4.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.29%50.10%50.13%52.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.831.851.9160.24%54.54%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Lorenzo (Visit)

Prediction 21.49%4.65fair odd
EV +9.19%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +2.25%
Growth +0.207%

assuming max odds 5.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.87%21.44%21.47%22.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.404.355.0825.64%22.72%22.99%19.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.41%3.52fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.580%
Kelly -0.816%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.53%28.46%28.40%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.253.273.4532.79%30.80%30.53%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 50.10%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 21.49%; Draw: 28.41%. For San Lorenzo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.65. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.09%EV -7.81%E -4.25%K -9.30%G +0.000%5.08I 19.69%NM 18.87%EV +9.19%E +1.81%K +2.25%G +0.207%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.04%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 22:05
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.42%EV -10.32%E -5.77%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.15%EV +5.32%E +1.09%K +1.36%G +0.072%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 22:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.42%EV -10.32%E -5.77%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.15%EV +5.32%E +1.09%K +1.36%G +0.072%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 22:10
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.08%EV -7.81%E -4.25%K -9.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.00%EV +1.02%E +0.217%K +0.275%G +0.003%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 21:50
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.86%EV -9.82%E -5.45%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV +1.02%E +0.217%K +0.275%G +0.003%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.07%EV -5.31%E -2.81%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.62%EV +0.589%E +0.126%K +0.160%G +0.001%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.31%EV -3.14%E -0.920%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-31 20:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.07%EV -5.31%E -2.81%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.62%EV +0.589%E +0.126%K +0.160%G +0.001%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.31%EV -3.14%E -0.920%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-31 20:55
BetAnything🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.07%EV -5.31%E -2.81%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.62%EV +0.589%E +0.126%K +0.160%G +0.001%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.31%EV -3.14%E -0.920%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-31 20:55
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.15%EV -5.31%E -2.81%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.83%EV -0.271%E -0.058%K -0.074%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV -2.00%E -0.580%K -0.816%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.85%EV -13.83%E -8.04%K -19.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -1.13%E -0.246%K -0.314%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-31 22:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.85%EV -13.83%E -8.04%K -19.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -1.13%E -0.246%K -0.314%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-31 22:10
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.92%EV -4.31%E -2.26%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -3.28%E -0.729%K -0.937%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-31 21:10
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -9.82%E -5.45%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -3.28%E -0.729%K -0.937%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 21:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -9.82%E -5.45%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -3.28%E -0.729%K -0.937%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.97%EV -15.83%E -9.42%K -23.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.40%EV -3.28%E -0.729%K -0.937%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.63%EV -13.36%E -4.38%K -6.52%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-31 22:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.42%EV -6.31%E -3.38%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -4.84%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 21:15
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.42%EV -6.31%E -3.38%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -4.84%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 21:00
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -7.31%E -3.95%K -8.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.42%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 21:15
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -7.31%E -3.95%K -8.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.42%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 21:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.95%EV -5.81%E -3.09%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -6.50%E -1.50%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 21:10
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -8.32%E -4.54%K -10.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -6.50%E -1.50%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-31 21:15
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -7.31%E -3.95%K -8.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -6.93%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -3.42%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 22:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.51%EV -5.31%E -2.81%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.61%EV -6.93%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.88%EV -7.96%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 09:45
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -12.32%E -7.04%K -16.43%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -6.93%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-31 21:34
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.83%EV -5.81%E -3.09%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -7.58%E -1.76%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 21:50
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.62%EV -6.31%E -3.38%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -8.65%E -2.04%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-31 21:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.31%E -2.26%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -9.73%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 20:55
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -4.81%E -2.53%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.73%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 20:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -4.81%E -2.53%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.73%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 20:55
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -4.31%E -2.26%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -9.73%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 20:54
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.29%EV -4.31%E -2.26%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -9.73%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-31 22:00
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.31%E -3.95%K -8.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -9.73%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 21:15
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -6.31%E -3.38%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.73%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 13:50
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -8.32%E -4.54%K -10.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -9.73%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 21:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.05%EV -10.82%E -6.08%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -9.73%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-31 22:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.11%EV -8.82%E -4.84%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -11.88%E -2.90%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 21:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.06%EV -7.31%E -3.95%K -8.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -11.88%E -2.90%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -10.52%E -3.34%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-31 21:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.22%EV -12.32%E -7.04%K -16.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -11.88%E -2.90%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-31 21:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 51.40%EV -16.83%E -10.14%K -25.50%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.07%EV -12.95%E -3.20%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.53%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-31 21:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.75%EV -11.82%E -6.72%K -15.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.45%EV -16.18%E -4.15%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.80%EV -10.52%E -3.34%K -4.89%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-31 21:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.7%2026-10-31 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.7%2026-10-31 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.7%2026-10-31 21:55
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.43%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.76%0.9%2026-10-31 22:00
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56%1.5%2026-10-31 22:10

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