L’École des cotesodds.school
Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)
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Velez Sarsfield BA v Platense

Coup d’envoi : 2026-10-05 22:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

38 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prévision 49.55%2.02cote équitable
EV -3.38%
Avantage -1.73%
Kelly -3.56%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.37%49.56%49.50%50.99%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.721.871.881.9558.14%53.54%53.33%51.28%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Platense (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.04%4.99cote équitable
EV +0.379%
Avantage +0.076%
Kelly +0.095%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.01

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.28%20.06%20.10%22.13%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.004.554.555.0125.00%21.99%21.98%19.96%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 30.41%3.29cote équitable
EV -2.67%
Avantage -0.836%
Kelly -1.22%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.90%30.38%30.41%31.30%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.873.073.103.2034.84%32.56%32.26%31.25%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Velez Sarsfield BA (Local) : 49.55% ; Platense (Visiteur) : 20.04% ; Match nul : 30.41%. Pour Platense (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.99. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 5.01, soit une espérance positive de +0.379%.

Cotes des opérateurs (38 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.10%EV -4.37%E -2.26%K -4.70%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 19.30%EV +0.379%E +0.076%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.60%EV -3.89%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-05 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.53%EV -3.38%E -1.73%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.51%EV -0.823%E -0.166%K -0.208%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.96%EV -5.11%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-05 03:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.53%EV -3.38%E -1.73%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.51%EV -0.823%E -0.166%K -0.208%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.96%EV -5.11%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-05 03:40
BetAnything🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.53%EV -3.38%E -1.73%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.51%EV -0.823%E -0.166%K -0.208%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.96%EV -5.11%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-05 03:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.91%EV -6.35%E -3.36%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -3.83%E -0.798%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -5.72%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-05 10:49
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.55%EV -5.36%E -2.81%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV -4.83%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -5.72%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 09:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.94%EV -6.85%E -3.64%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -4.83%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -5.72%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 10:49
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.94%EV -6.85%E -3.64%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -4.83%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -5.72%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 14:30
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.71%EV -4.86%E -2.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.11%EV -6.83%E -1.47%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.18%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 15:10
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.71%EV -4.86%E -2.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.11%EV -6.83%E -1.47%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.18%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 15:10
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.25%EV -4.37%E -2.26%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.48%EV -7.03%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.27%EV -4.50%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-05 03:49
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.36%E -2.81%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.84%E -1.70%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -4.20%E -1.33%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -5.36%E -2.81%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -7.84%E -1.70%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -5.72%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 10:04
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.62%EV -6.85%E -3.64%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -7.84%E -1.70%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -5.72%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 12:01
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.36%E -2.81%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.24%EV -7.84%E -1.70%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 10:04
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.13%EV -6.85%E -3.64%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -7.84%E -1.70%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-05 14:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.82%EV -10.31%E -5.70%K -12.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -7.84%E -1.70%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.57%EV -10.28%E -3.48%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-05 10:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.54%EV -10.81%E -6.01%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -7.84%E -1.70%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.07%EV -12.71%E -4.43%K -6.80%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-05 14:38
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.28%EV -6.35%E -3.36%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.47%EV -8.84%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.24%EV -6.32%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 03:46
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.99%EV -14.77%E -8.59%K -20.52%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.28%EV -8.84%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -10.28%E -3.48%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-05 10:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.34%E -3.93%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.84%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -2.67%E -0.836%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 16:35
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.34%E -3.93%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.84%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -2.67%E -0.836%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 15:00
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -9.32%E -5.09%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -9.84%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.90%EV -2.67%E -0.836%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-05 13:44
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.29%EV -7.34%E -3.93%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.84%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-05 10:49
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -9.32%E -5.09%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -9.84%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -5.72%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-05 08:10
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.53%EV -7.34%E -3.93%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -9.84%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -11.80%E -4.07%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-05 14:39
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.14%EV -5.85%E -3.08%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -11.84%E -2.69%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -4.20%E -1.33%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 13:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.91%EV -5.85%E -3.08%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -11.84%E -2.69%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.97%EV -5.72%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-05 13:44
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.57%EV -8.33%E -4.50%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -11.84%E -2.69%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -5.72%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 09:39
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -9.32%E -5.09%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -11.84%E -2.69%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -4.20%E -1.33%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-05 15:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.47%EV -8.83%E -4.80%K -10.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -11.84%E -2.69%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-05 10:50
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.33%E -4.50%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -13.25%E -3.06%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -5.72%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-05 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.10%EV -8.33%E -4.50%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.12%EV -13.85%E -3.22%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-05 09:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.54%EV -10.81%E -6.01%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -13.85%E -3.22%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-05 10:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.66%EV -10.81%E -6.01%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.03%EV -14.85%E -3.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-04 16:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.66%EV -10.81%E -6.01%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.03%EV -14.85%E -3.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-05 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.86%EV -12.79%E -7.27%K -16.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.89%EV -15.85%E -3.77%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-04 16:35
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -9.32%E -5.09%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -19.86%E -4.96%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-05 14:01
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.99%5.26I 19.01%NM 19.00%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.01%0.1%2026-10-05 13:50
Smarkets◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.55%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%0.9%2026-10-05 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.55%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%0.9%2026-10-05 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.55%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%0.9%2026-10-05 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.55%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%0.9%2026-10-05 14:30