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Velez Sarsfield BA v Newells Old Boys
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
assuming max odds 1.66
Newells Old Boys (Visit)
assuming max odds 6.09
Draw
assuming max odds 3.69
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 57.33%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 16.29%; Draw: 26.38%. For Newells Old Boys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.09, with an expected value of -0.780%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.06%EV -4.84%E -2.92%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 6.09I 16.42%NM 15.83%EV -0.780%E -0.128%K -0.153%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.12%EV -2.65%E -0.718%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-06 14:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.47%EV -4.84%E -2.92%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%EV -8.76%E -1.56%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 14:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -5.41%E -3.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.61I 17.83%NM 16.71%EV -8.60%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.48%EV -6.61%E -1.87%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 14:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.01%EV -5.41%E -3.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -10.39%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-06 14:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.26%EV -6.56%E -4.02%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -7.13%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.37%EV -6.61%E -1.87%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.32%EV -7.13%E -4.40%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -6.32%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 14:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -7.13%E -4.40%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -10.39%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-06 14:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.65%EV -7.13%E -4.40%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -18.54%E -3.71%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.97%EV -20.85%E -6.95%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.39%EV -7.71%E -4.79%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.21%EV -7.13%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-06 14:18 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -7.71%E -4.79%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -10.39%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.41%EV -8.28%E -5.17%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.73%EV -18.54%E -3.71%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -12.94%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-06 14:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 56.54%EV -14.01%E -9.34%K -28.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 16.96%EV -18.54%E -3.71%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.50%EV -15.58%E -4.87%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.