The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Velez Sarsfield BA v Gimnasia Mendoza

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 23:00 UTC

Final: Velez Sarsfield BA 1–0 Gimnasia Mendoza

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prediction 52.73%1.90fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -4.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%52.69%52.80%53.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.761.771.8360.24%56.74%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit)

Prediction 20.46%4.89fair odd
EV +0.648%
Edge +0.132%
Kelly +0.165%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.64%20.46%20.40%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.514.504.9224.39%22.16%22.22%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.81%3.73fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.663%
Kelly -0.914%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.11%26.85%26.81%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.433.443.6431.75%29.14%29.11%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 52.73%; Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit): 20.46%; Draw: 26.81%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.89. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.648%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.67%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.64%EV +0.648%E +0.132%K +0.165%G +0.001%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.69%EV -2.95%E -0.815%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-17 10:24
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.67%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.64%EV +0.648%E +0.132%K +0.165%G +0.001%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.69%EV -2.95%E -0.815%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-17 10:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.52%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.86%EV -0.784%E -0.162%K -0.204%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.61%EV -2.95%E -0.815%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-17 22:55
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.50%EV -5.61%E -3.13%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.83%EV -1.19%E -0.247%K -0.312%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.67%EV -3.75%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-17 22:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.10%EV -6.13%E -3.45%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -2.83%E -0.596%K -0.755%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 03:20
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.87%EV -3.50%E -1.91%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 20.54%EV -3.65%E -0.775%K -0.983%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.58%EV -2.41%E -0.663%K -0.914%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-17 22:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.85%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 22:30
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.85%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 22:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -6.66%E -3.76%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -3.85%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 03:25
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -7.72%E -4.41%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -3.85%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 22:55
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.98%EV -9.83%E -5.75%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.64%EV -3.85%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 22:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -7.19%E -4.08%K -9.46%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.99%EV -4.88%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.18%EV -8.31%E -2.43%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 04:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -5.90%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 04:14
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.44%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -7.94%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.83%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 22:35
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.94%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 22:35
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -6.66%E -3.76%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -7.94%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 04:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.94%EV -7.72%E -4.41%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -7.94%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-17 07:19
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.82%EV -6.66%E -3.76%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.94%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -11.53%E -3.49%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 22:30
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.25%EV -10.35%E -6.09%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -7.94%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 22:55
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.25%EV -10.35%E -6.09%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -7.94%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 10:10
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -4.02%E -2.21%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -9.99%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.51%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 22:39
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -6.66%E -3.76%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -9.99%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -7.51%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 03:20
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.87%EV -6.13%E -3.45%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -9.99%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 22:50
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.99%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -11.53%E -3.49%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 22:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.13%EV -9.30%E -5.41%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.77%EV -9.99%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 03:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.37%EV -10.35%E -6.09%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -9.99%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -12.87%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 22:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.81%EV -8.77%E -5.07%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.61%EV -11.01%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -12.87%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 22:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.81%EV -8.77%E -5.07%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.61%EV -11.01%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -12.87%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 22:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.84%EV -12.46%E -7.51%K -18.88%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.17%EV -11.01%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -12.87%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-17 22:34
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -11.42%E -2.64%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 22:35
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.76%EV -8.77%E -5.07%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.68%EV -11.42%E -2.64%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -12.87%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 22:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -10.35%E -6.09%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.86%EV -12.04%E -2.80%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 03:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.68%EV -10.35%E -6.09%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.43%EV -12.04%E -2.80%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.89%EV -15.55%E -4.94%K -7.23%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-17 22:30
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.48%EV -6.13%E -3.45%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.56%EV -13.06%E -3.07%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.95%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 22:15
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -14.08%E -3.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 22:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.51%EV -7.72%E -4.41%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -16.13%E -3.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 22:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.01%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.50%0.6%2026-10-17 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.80%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.80%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40%1.0%2026-10-17 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.48%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-10-17 22:55
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.48%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-10-17 20:10
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.28%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.5%2026-10-17 22:35