The School of Odds
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Velez Sarsfield BA v Central Córdoba

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prediction 53.59%1.87fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -3.22%
Kelly -7.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.92%53.59%53.40%54.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.671.671.7664.10%60.02%59.88%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Central Córdoba (Visit)

Prediction 18.06%5.54fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.455%
Kelly -0.559%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.28%18.06%18.19%20.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.724.605.4023.26%21.18%21.74%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.34%3.53fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.24%28.34%28.42%28.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.933.143.103.4034.13%31.85%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 53.59%; Central Córdoba (Visit): 18.06%; Draw: 28.34%. For Central Córdoba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.40, with an expected value of -2.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.27%EV -5.67%E -3.22%K -7.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -9.68%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -5.05%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-27 04:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.93%EV -7.28%E -4.21%K -9.98%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -2.46%E -0.455%K -0.559%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.79%EV -8.17%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-27 23:45
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.00%EV -7.28%E -4.21%K -9.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.34%EV -9.68%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.30%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-27 23:40
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.06%EV -7.82%E -4.55%K -10.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -9.68%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -3.63%E -1.07%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-26 21:00
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.85%EV -9.43%E -5.58%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-26 20:58
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.83%EV -10.50%E -6.29%K -15.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.93%EV -14.20%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-26 20:59
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.96%EV -10.50%E -6.29%K -15.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.04%EV -21.79%E -5.03%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.99%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-26 20:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.51%EV -11.03%E -6.65%K -16.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -18.72%E -4.16%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.12%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-26 22:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.59%EV -13.18%E -8.13%K -21.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.52%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.88%EV -16.39%E -5.56%K -8.40%G +0.000%17.4%2026-03-26 22:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.59%EV -13.18%E -8.13%K -21.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.52%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.88%EV -16.39%E -5.56%K -8.40%G +0.000%17.4%2026-03-26 22:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 51.92%EV -13.18%E -8.13%K -21.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.56%EV -22.33%E -5.19%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.51%EV -16.39%E -5.56%K -8.40%G +0.000%18.9%2026-03-26 22:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 52.65%EV -13.71%E -8.52%K -22.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.43%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 28.93%EV -16.96%E -5.79%K -8.79%G +0.000%18.0%2026-03-27 14:34
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 53.59%EV -16.39%E -10.51%K -29.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.00%EV -20.52%E -4.66%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.41%EV -13.55%E -4.44%K -6.61%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-26 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.