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Union Santa Fe v Velez Sarsfield BA

2026-11-08 00:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 29.64%3.37fair odd
EV -6.65%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.64%29.64%29.64%29.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.063.053.1533.90%32.70%32.79%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)

Prediction 41.20%2.43fair odd
EV -6.07%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -4.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.00%41.20%41.20%41.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.212.212.2846.73%45.15%45.35%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.17%3.43fair odd
EV -5.21%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.93%29.17%29.17%29.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.143.133.2533.33%31.83%32.00%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Santa Fe (Local): 29.64%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit): 41.20%; Draw: 29.17%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.25, with an expected value of -5.21%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.65%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -5.21%E -1.60%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 14:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.65%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -5.21%E -1.60%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 14:55
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.20%EV -8.13%E -3.64%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -8.13%E -2.58%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 14:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.91%EV -11.09%E -3.70%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.15%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.59%E -3.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 14:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.91%EV -11.09%E -3.70%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.15%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.59%E -3.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -12.57%E -4.26%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.00%EV -11.84%E -5.53%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -12.50%E -4.17%K -6.25%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.