The School of Odds
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Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes

Kickoff: 2026-10-26 22:00 UTC

Final: Union Santa Fe 3–1 Estudiantes

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 33.08%3.02fair odd
EV +1.87%
Edge +0.608%
Kelly +0.900%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.14%33.13%33.09%34.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.792.773.0838.17%35.91%36.04%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes (Visit)

Prediction 36.98%2.70fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.754%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.79%36.95%36.98%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.512.502.6545.45%39.90%39.92%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.94%3.34fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.78%29.92%29.94%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.083.103.2134.72%32.44%32.26%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 33.08%; Estudiantes (Visit): 36.98%; Draw: 29.94%. For Union Santa Fe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.14%EV +1.87%E +0.608%K +0.900%G +0.017%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.21%EV -7.18%E -2.86%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.64%EV -6.28%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-26 21:55
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.79%EV -2.43%E -0.823%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.07%EV -3.48%E -1.33%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.14%EV -3.88%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-26 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.30%EV -4.08%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.44%EV -2.00%E -0.754%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.27%EV -4.48%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-26 21:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.30%EV -4.08%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.44%EV -2.00%E -0.754%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.27%EV -4.48%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-26 21:05
BetAnything🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.94%EV -4.08%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.85%E -1.48%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.32%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-26 21:55
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.08%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -4.18%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-26 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.18%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-26 21:50
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 21:45
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 21:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 21:55
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 21:44
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -7.18%E -2.32%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 21:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -7.18%E -2.32%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 21:55
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -3.85%E -1.48%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-26 21:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.13%EV -7.06%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.65%EV -6.07%E -2.39%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.22%EV -7.78%E -2.52%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-26 21:30
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.48%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.76%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-26 21:44
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.85%E -1.48%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-26 21:40
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.18%E -2.32%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 21:50
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.18%E -2.32%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 21:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -3.85%E -1.48%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -4.18%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-26 20:55
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.18%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-26 21:25
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-26 21:55
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.19%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-26 21:45
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -13.17%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-26 21:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -13.17%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-26 21:50
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -11.24%E -4.68%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-26 21:50
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-26 21:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.79%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.24%EV -9.39%E -3.83%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.97%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-26 21:50
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -13.76%E -4.78%K -7.32%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-26 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.04%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.71%EV -10.13%E -4.17%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -11.67%E -3.96%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-26 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.04%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.71%EV -10.13%E -4.17%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -11.67%E -3.96%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-26 21:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.81%EV -10.50%E -4.34%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.20%EV -11.67%E -3.96%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-26 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.24%EV -18.64%E -8.47%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.09%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-26 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 32.84%EV -11.69%E -4.38%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.63%EV -13.83%E -5.94%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.52%EV -11.07%E -3.73%K -5.62%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-26 21:53
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -12.35%E -4.66%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -9.39%E -3.83%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.18%E -2.32%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-26 21:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -12.35%E -4.66%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.32%EV -11.24%E -4.68%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -7.18%E -2.32%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-26 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.03%EV -12.35%E -4.66%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.78%EV -11.98%E -5.04%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.19%EV -13.17%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-26 21:55
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -13.34%E -5.09%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.18%E -2.32%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 21:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%0.6%2026-10-26 21:50
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%0.6%2026-10-26 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%1.1%2026-10-26 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%1.1%2026-10-26 21:55
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.28%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-10-26 21:30