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Union Santa Fe v Deportivo Riestra

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 52.88%1.89fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.94%52.80%52.77%54.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.711.731.8564.10%58.64%57.80%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 17.16%5.83fair odd
EV +2.96%
Edge +0.493%
Kelly +0.592%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.17%17.19%17.27%19.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.225.306.0022.22%19.17%18.87%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.96%3.34fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.41%30.01%29.96%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.983.003.2036.36%33.56%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 52.88%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 17.16%; Draw: 29.96%. For Deportivo Riestra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.83. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -11.69%E -7.00%K -17.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV +2.96%E +0.493%K +0.592%G +0.017%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.13%E -3.38%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-26 21:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.19%EV -9.04%E -5.26%K -12.56%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.93%EV +0.384%E +0.066%K +0.079%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.87%EV -6.53%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-27 11:44
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.91%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.88%EV -4.76%E -0.858%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-26 23:50
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.92%EV -4.81%E -2.67%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.32%EV -5.62%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.77%EV -4.13%E -1.29%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-27 05:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 53.99%EV -15.39%E -9.62%K -25.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.71%EV -5.62%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.31%EV -14.62%E -5.13%K -7.90%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-26 13:33
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 54.14%EV -15.92%E -10.01%K -26.98%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.65%EV -5.62%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.21%EV -14.62%E -5.13%K -7.90%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-26 23:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 54.14%EV -15.92%E -10.01%K -26.98%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.65%EV -5.62%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.21%EV -14.62%E -5.13%K -7.90%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-26 23:55
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -7.34%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-27 06:42
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.14%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -7.34%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -10.13%E -3.38%K -5.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-26 22:38
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.22%EV -15.39%E -9.62%K -25.65%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.37%EV -9.05%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.41%EV -11.62%E -3.94%K -5.96%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-26 23:49
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -14.20%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-27 10:19
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -14.20%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.13%E -3.38%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-26 23:44
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -8.51%E -4.92%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -14.20%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.99%EV -10.13%E -3.38%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-26 23:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 53.78%EV -17.50%E -11.22%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.78%EV -14.20%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.44%EV -14.62%E -5.13%K -7.90%G +0.000%19.2%2026-03-26 23:54
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -2.17%E -1.17%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.37%EV -16.78%E -3.46%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.63%E -1.79%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-27 10:45
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -2.17%E -1.17%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.37%EV -16.78%E -3.46%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.63%E -1.79%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-27 10:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 52.22%EV -15.39%E -9.62%K -25.65%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.41%EV -17.63%E -3.67%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.38%EV -17.61%E -6.41%K -10.07%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-26 23:45
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.59%EV -10.10%E -5.94%K -14.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.70%EV -21.07%E -4.58%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.71%EV -16.12%E -5.76%K -8.95%G +0.000%16.3%2026-03-26 23:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.94%EV -8.51%E -4.92%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.20%EV -22.78%E -5.06%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.86%EV -16.12%E -5.76%K -8.95%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-26 23:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 50.82%2.16I 46.30%NM 24.70%2.18I 45.87%NM 24.48%87.4%2026-03-27 08:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 50.82%2.16I 46.30%NM 24.70%2.18I 45.87%NM 24.48%87.4%2026-03-27 08:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 51.06%2.16I 46.30%NM 24.58%2.18I 45.87%NM 24.36%88.3%2026-03-27 08:55
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 48.13%1.74I 57.47%NM 28.49%2.12I 47.17%NM 23.38%101.7%2026-03-27 08:55