The School of Odds
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Union Santa Fe v Defensa y Justicia

2026-10-11 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 41.82%2.39fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.64%41.90%41.92%42.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.192.3150.00%46.05%45.66%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Defensa y Justicia (Visit)

Prediction 28.19%3.55fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.24%28.17%28.24%29.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.3533.33%31.44%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.99%3.33fair odd
EV -5.53%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.14%29.93%29.83%30.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.033.053.1535.09%33.05%32.79%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Santa Fe (Local): 41.82%; Defensa y Justicia (Visit): 28.19%; Draw: 29.99%. For Union Santa Fe (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.31, with an expected value of -3.39%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.13%EV -3.39%E -1.47%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.71%EV -6.70%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.53%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 08:15
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -3.81%E -1.65%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.03%E -2.27%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 06:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.13%EV -5.48%E -2.42%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.69%EV -8.67%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.18%EV -7.63%E -2.48%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-26 08:32
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -5.90%E -2.62%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.53%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 01:59
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.90%E -2.62%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.03%E -2.27%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 02:04
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -7.99%E -3.63%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.03%E -3.34%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-21 02:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.16%EV -8.41%E -3.84%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -5.57%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.27%EV -8.53%E -2.80%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 02:04
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -10.08%E -4.69%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.03%E -2.27%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-21 06:53
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.08%E -4.69%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -13.03%E -4.49%K -6.86%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-21 02:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.76%EV -13.43%E -6.49%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.00%EV -11.53%E -3.91%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-26 20:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -14.26%E -6.96%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -10.03%E -3.34%K -5.02%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-21 02:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.03%EV -14.26%E -6.96%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.25%EV -14.03%E -4.60%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.71%EV -13.03%E -4.49%K -6.86%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-21 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.61%EV -16.35%E -8.18%K -16.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.49%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.90%EV -14.53%E -5.10%K -7.85%G +0.000%17.3%2026-09-26 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.50%158.8%2026-09-26 12:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.50%158.8%2026-09-22 08:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.50%158.8%2026-09-22 08:29