The School of Odds
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Union Santa Fe v Defensa y Justicia

2026-10-11 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 42.01%2.38fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.64%41.92%42.01%42.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.162.192.3050.51%46.36%45.66%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Defensa y Justicia (Visit)

Prediction 28.22%3.54fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.29%28.27%28.22%29.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.3733.33%31.46%31.25%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.77%3.36fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.14%29.82%29.77%30.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.053.1935.71%33.14%32.79%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Santa Fe (Local): 42.01%; Defensa y Justicia (Visit): 28.22%; Draw: 29.77%. For Union Santa Fe (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.30, with an expected value of -3.37%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -3.37%E -1.47%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 06:14
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.03%EV -5.05%E -2.23%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.19%EV -4.90%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.78%EV -5.04%E -1.58%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-21 02:19
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -5.47%E -2.43%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.23%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 01:59
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.47%E -2.43%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 02:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.05%EV -7.15%E -3.24%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.79%EV -7.13%E -2.28%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 02:07
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -7.57%E -3.44%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.70%E -3.57%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-21 02:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.16%EV -7.99%E -3.65%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.27%EV -9.21%E -3.02%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 02:04
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.67%E -4.50%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-21 06:53
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -9.67%E -4.50%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -15.34%E -5.11%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -13.67%E -4.72%K -7.20%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-21 02:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -13.87%E -6.77%K -13.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -10.70%E -3.57%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-21 02:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.03%EV -13.87%E -6.77%K -13.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.25%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.71%EV -13.67%E -4.72%K -7.20%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-21 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -15.97%E -7.99%K -15.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -16.65%E -5.95%K -9.25%G +0.000%18.0%2026-09-21 02:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 42.72%EV -16.81%E -8.49%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.29%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 29.99%EV -16.06%E -5.69%K -8.82%G +0.000%18.2%2026-09-21 02:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 02:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 02:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 02:34