The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Union Santa Fe v Defensa y Justicia

2026-10-10 00:45 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 41.46%2.41fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -3.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.64%41.46%41.46%41.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.252.252.3045.45%44.44%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Defensa y Justicia (Visit)

Prediction 29.39%3.40fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.90%29.39%29.39%30.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.143.133.2533.33%31.83%32.00%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.15%3.43fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%29.15%29.15%29.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.193.203.2532.26%31.33%31.25%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Santa Fe (Local): 41.46%; Defensa y Justicia (Visit): 29.39%; Draw: 29.15%. For Defensa y Justicia (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.40. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.25, with an expected value of -4.48%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -4.65%E -2.02%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-27 14:03
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.72%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-27 14:05
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.72%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-27 14:04
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -6.72%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-27 14:00
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.72%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-27 14:04
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -8.79%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.63%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-27 14:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.50%158.8%2026-09-27 13:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.50%158.8%2026-09-27 14:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.18I 84.75%NM 32.75%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.50%158.8%2026-09-27 14:05