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Union Santa Fe v Defensa y Justicia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Union Santa Fe (Local)
Prediction 45.12%2.22fair odd
EV -0.286%
Edge -0.129%
Kelly -0.236%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.86%45.05%45.09%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.052.052.2153.48%48.77%48.78%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Defensa y Justicia (Visit)
Prediction 26.54%3.77fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.416%
Kelly -0.570%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.51%26.58%26.51%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.413.403.7133.33%29.29%29.41%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.34%3.53fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%28.37%28.40%29.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.4033.33%30.75%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 45.12%; Defensa y Justicia (Visit): 26.54%; Draw: 28.34%. For Union Santa Fe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.21, with an expected value of -0.286%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.99%EV -0.286%E -0.129%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.22%EV -7.38%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.78%EV -9.59%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 11:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -2.99%E -1.39%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-05 01:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -2.99%E -1.39%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -9.30%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 20:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.14%EV -4.35%E -2.05%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -5.05%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-04 05:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 04:58 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 01:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -13.75%E -4.23%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-04 04:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -13.75%E -4.23%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-04 04:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -6.15%E -2.96%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 06:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.04%EV -6.60%E -3.19%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.69%EV -1.54%E -0.416%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.28%EV -4.49%E -1.33%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.04%EV -6.60%E -3.19%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.69%EV -1.54%E -0.416%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.28%EV -4.49%E -1.33%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 23:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.96%EV -6.60%E -3.19%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.64%EV -1.54%E -0.416%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.40%EV -5.05%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 19:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -6.60%E -3.19%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.05%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 01:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -6.60%E -3.19%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.05%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 01:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 07:21 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 07:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.30%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 06:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 00:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.89%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-03 01:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.73%EV -8.86%E -4.39%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -1.81%E -0.489%K -0.670%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 22:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.73%EV -8.86%E -4.39%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -1.81%E -0.489%K -0.670%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 22:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -9.76%E -4.88%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-03 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.10%EV -9.76%E -4.88%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 28.37%EV -9.87%E -3.10%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-05 06:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.83%EV -9.76%E -4.88%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -13.75%E -4.23%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 06:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.76%E -4.88%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -9.30%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-03 01:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.76%E -4.88%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -9.30%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-03 01:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.56%EV -9.76%E -4.88%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -13.56%E -4.44%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -9.76%E -4.88%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -20.39%E -6.80%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -14.97%E -4.99%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-10-04 05:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.75%EV -11.57%E -5.90%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.41%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.84%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-10-05 06:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 44.99%EV -12.47%E -6.43%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.86%EV -13.75%E -4.23%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.15%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-10-03 01:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 45.69%EV -15.63%E -8.36%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.29%EV -13.75%E -4.23%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.02%EV -13.56%E -4.44%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-10-05 06:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.96% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.96% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.96% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.84% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |