The School of Odds
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Union Santa Fe v Central Córdoba

2026-08-11 00:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 63.23%1.58fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -3.43%
Kelly -10.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.59%63.23%63.23%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.461.461.5069.44%68.34%68.49%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Central Córdoba (Visit)

Prediction 13.37%7.48fair odd
EV -0.799%
Edge -0.108%
Kelly -0.124%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.82%13.37%13.37%15.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.706.757.4217.39%14.94%14.81%13.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.40%4.27fair odd
EV -6.41%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.76%23.40%23.40%24.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.904.004.0027.78%25.64%25.00%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Santa Fe (Local): 63.23%; Central Córdoba (Visit): 13.37%; Draw: 23.40%. For Central Córdoba (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.48. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 7.42, with an expected value of -0.799%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.15%E -3.43%K -10.30%G +0.000%7.42I 13.48%NM 12.82%EV -0.799%E -0.108%K -0.124%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 18:44
SportsBet1.48I 67.57%NM 63.23%EV -6.41%E -4.33%K -13.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -6.41%E -0.916%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 15:14
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 63.23%EV -6.41%E -4.33%K -13.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -6.41%E -0.916%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 15:15
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.94%E -6.21%K -20.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -13.10%E -2.02%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 15:15
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -8.94%E -6.21%K -20.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -13.10%E -2.02%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-02 15:14
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 60.59%EV -8.94%E -6.21%K -20.33%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.17%EV -23.13%E -4.02%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -15.77%E -4.38%K -6.07%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-02 15:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 60.91%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.56%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.54%16.4%2026-08-02 15:15