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Union Santa Fe v Aldosivi Mar del Plata
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Union Santa Fe (Local)
Prediction 59.42%1.68fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.22%59.42%59.38%60.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.551.571.6571.43%64.37%63.69%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit)
Prediction 14.54%6.88fair odd
EV +2.05%
Edge +0.292%
Kelly +0.341%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 7.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.73%14.58%14.48%15.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.346.507.0217.86%15.78%15.38%14.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.04%3.84fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -0.982%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.88%26.00%26.14%27.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.543.603.7030.77%28.22%27.78%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 59.42%; Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit): 14.54%; Draw: 26.04%. For Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.88. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.02, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.05%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.86%EV -4.34%E -2.69%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 7.02I 14.25%NM 13.73%EV +2.05%E +0.292%K +0.341%G +0.007% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -4.94%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-23 00:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.94%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.81%EV +0.307%E +0.044%K +0.052%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.25%EV -5.46%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-23 00:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.94%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.81%EV +0.307%E +0.044%K +0.052%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.25%EV -5.46%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-23 00:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.71%E -4.28%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -1.87%E -0.278%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.87%EV -4.94%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-23 00:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.30%EV -7.31%E -4.68%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.93%EV -1.87%E -0.278%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -4.94%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-23 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.39%EV -8.50%E -5.52%K -15.73%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -1.87%E -0.278%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-23 00:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.27%EV -6.12%E -3.87%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.98%EV -2.60%E -0.388%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.27%EV -6.12%E -3.87%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.98%EV -2.60%E -0.388%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-23 00:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.78%EV -4.34%E -2.69%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.45%EV -6.12%E -3.87%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.18%EV -7.31%E -4.68%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -3.63%E -0.982%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.86%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-20 05:36 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.61%EV -6.71%E -4.28%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-23 00:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.97%EV -7.31%E -4.68%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -4.94%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-23 00:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.92%EV -7.90%E -5.10%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-23 00:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.65%EV -9.09%E -5.94%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -3.63%E -0.982%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-23 00:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -7.31%E -4.68%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -11.45%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-22 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.95%EV -9.68%E -6.37%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-23 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.95%EV -9.68%E -6.37%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-23 00:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.99%EV -6.12%E -3.87%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.68%EV -7.69%E -1.21%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.33%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-23 00:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.32%EV -1.96%E -1.19%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.28I 15.92%NM 15.32%EV -8.71%E -1.39%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.36%EV -4.94%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.27%EV -6.71%E -4.28%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -9.14%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-23 00:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.22%EV -7.90%E -5.10%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.44%EV -9.14%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -14.05%E -4.26%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-02-22 17:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.59%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.65%EV -11.32%E -1.86%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 25.76%EV -9.62%E -2.77%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-02-23 00:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.93%E -3.08%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.78%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-23 00:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.93%E -3.08%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.78%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-23 00:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -12.78%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-23 00:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.71%E -4.28%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -12.78%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-22 23:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.32%EV -6.12%E -3.87%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -12.78%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -6.71%E -4.28%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.78%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-22 23:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.57%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -12.78%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-02-23 00:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.13%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.78%EV -12.78%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.45%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-02-23 00:15 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.29%EV -11.47%E -7.70%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.72%EV -12.78%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -11.45%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 59.72%EV -13.84%E -9.55%K -30.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.43%EV -12.78%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.85%EV -12.75%E -3.81%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-02-23 00:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.73%EV -9.68%E -6.37%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.39%EV -14.23%E -2.41%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -4.94%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-23 00:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 59.80%EV -16.81%E -12.01%K -42.04%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 14.44%EV -15.68%E -2.70%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.76%EV -15.35%E -4.72%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 19.4% | 2026-02-23 00:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.11%EV -11.47%E -7.70%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.73%EV -18.59%E -3.32%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.81% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42% | 0.9% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.81% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42% | 0.9% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.81% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42% | 0.9% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.81% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42% | 0.9% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.76% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.57% | 1.6% | 2026-02-23 00:20 |