The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Talleres v Independiente

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Final: Talleres 0–0 Independiente

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 42.24%2.37fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.49%42.30%42.25%43.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.182.202.2650.76%45.79%45.45%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 27.46%3.64fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.359%
Kelly +0.492%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.16%27.38%27.44%28.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.383.403.6932.26%29.59%29.41%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.30%3.30fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -0.951%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.45%30.32%30.31%31.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.053.093.2034.72%32.79%32.36%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Talleres (Local): 42.24%; Independiente (Visit): 27.46%; Draw: 30.30%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.10%EV -5.38%E -2.40%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.16%EV +1.32%E +0.359%K +0.492%G +0.007%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.74%EV -4.86%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.10%EV -5.38%E -2.40%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.16%EV +1.32%E +0.359%K +0.492%G +0.007%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.74%EV -4.86%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 23:09
BetAnything🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.10%EV -5.38%E -2.40%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.16%EV +1.32%E +0.359%K +0.492%G +0.007%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.74%EV -4.86%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 23:09
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.81%EV -4.53%E -2.01%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.29%EV +1.05%E +0.285%K +0.392%G +0.004%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.91%EV -5.16%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-12 00:20
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.48%EV -4.53%E -2.01%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.74%EV -1.42%E -0.396%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.77%EV -5.47%E -1.75%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-12 00:22
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.96%E -2.20%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.89%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-12 00:25
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.96%E -2.20%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.89%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-12 00:19
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -3.89%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-12 00:19
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -6.22%E -2.80%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.27%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -4.56%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-12 00:19
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -6.22%E -2.80%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.27%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -4.56%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-12 00:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.16%EV -5.38%E -2.40%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.27%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 20:50
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.27%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -7.59%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-12 00:18
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.96%E -2.20%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.96%E -2.20%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 20:50
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.04%E -0.951%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 19:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 00:19
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 00:19
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 00:19
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.59%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-10 20:50
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.18%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -12.74%E -4.42%K -6.78%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 00:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.18%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -12.74%E -4.42%K -6.78%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 00:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.07%EV -6.65%E -3.01%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -8.01%E -2.39%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.18%EV -6.68%E -2.17%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 08:35
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.38%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 17:00
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.38%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-12 00:19
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.18%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.38%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 14:00
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -10.76%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-12 00:20
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -10.76%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-12 00:19
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.70%EV -7.07%E -3.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -10.76%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -7.59%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 23:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -9.18%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -10.76%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -7.59%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-11 19:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.18%EV -10.45%E -4.93%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -10.76%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -10.62%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-12 00:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.18%EV -10.45%E -4.93%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -10.76%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -10.62%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-12 00:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.05%EV -10.45%E -4.93%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.43%EV -10.76%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.53%EV -11.53%E -3.95%K -6.00%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-12 00:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 43.75%EV -16.78%E -8.52%K -17.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.52%EV -10.76%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.72%EV -12.13%E -4.18%K -6.39%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-12 00:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.43%EV -12.56%E -6.07%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.28%EV -11.58%E -3.60%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -12.13%E -4.18%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-12 00:03
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.07%EV -9.18%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -12.13%E -3.79%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -7.59%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-12 00:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -11.29%E -5.38%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.13%E -3.79%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-11 19:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 42.48%EV -12.98%E -6.30%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.35%EV -12.13%E -3.79%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.17%EV -12.13%E -4.18%K -6.39%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-12 00:19
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.18%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -14.88%E -4.80%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 23:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.46%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%0.7%2026-10-12 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.46%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%0.7%2026-10-12 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%1.1%2026-10-12 00:25
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.27%1.5%2026-10-12 00:20
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.49%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%1.9%2026-10-12 00:05