The School of Odds
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Talleres v Independiente

2026-10-12 00:30 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 42.44%2.36fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.88%42.51%42.43%43.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.192.2650.00%46.07%45.77%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 27.35%3.66fair odd
EV -0.188%
Edge -0.052%
Kelly -0.071%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.47%27.33%27.37%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.383.403.6531.75%29.56%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.22%3.31fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.16%30.16%30.20%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.073.103.2034.48%32.55%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Talleres (Local): 42.44%; Independiente (Visit): 27.35%; Draw: 30.22%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.65, with an expected value of -0.188%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -4.09%E -1.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.79%EV -6.48%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -4.82%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.81%EV -4.51%E -2.01%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.61%EV -1.01%E -0.279%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.58%EV -4.82%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-11 10:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.51%E -2.01%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.02%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.51%E -2.01%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.02%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 20:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.16%EV -4.94%E -2.20%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 20:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.33%EV -5.36%E -2.40%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -0.188%E -0.052%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.20%EV -3.31%E -1.03%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 03:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.33%EV -5.36%E -2.40%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -0.188%E -0.052%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.20%EV -3.31%E -1.03%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 03:10
BetAnything🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.33%EV -5.36%E -2.40%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -0.188%E -0.052%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.20%EV -3.31%E -1.03%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 03:10
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -5.79%E -2.61%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -2.92%E -0.823%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 10:14
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -5.79%E -2.61%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -2.92%E -0.823%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 10:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.07%EV -6.21%E -2.81%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -8.39%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.18%EV -6.94%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 08:35
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.63%E -3.02%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -4.82%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 00:35
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.63%E -3.02%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.29%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 10:19
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.63%E -3.02%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:55
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.63%E -3.02%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.02%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 10:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.63%E -3.02%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -8.39%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 17:30
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.63%E -3.02%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -8.39%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 17:30
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.63%E -3.02%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -7.02%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.84%E -2.57%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-10 20:50
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.63%E -3.02%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.76%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 17:00
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.21%EV -7.91%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.76%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.03%EV -7.84%E -2.57%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-10 17:30
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -8.76%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.02%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.31%E -1.03%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 17:34
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -8.76%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -4.82%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 17:30
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.76%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.02%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.76%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.02%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-11 01:45
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -8.76%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -8.39%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -7.84%E -2.57%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 00:40
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.76%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.02%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.35%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 00:40
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.76%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.76%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.35%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.76%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.76%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.35%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-11 00:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -10.03%E -4.73%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -12.49%E -3.90%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.18%EV -10.87%E -3.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-10 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -10.03%E -4.73%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -12.49%E -3.90%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.18%EV -10.87%E -3.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-10 17:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.76%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 17:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.91%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.06%EV -8.94%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.03%EV -9.35%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-10 20:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.65%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -12.49%E -3.90%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -7.84%E -2.57%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-10 20:50
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.13%E -3.42%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -9.35%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-10 17:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.45%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -9.76%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.53%EV -11.77%E -4.03%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-10 20:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -13.86%E -4.40%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -9.35%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-10 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.06%EV -11.73%E -5.64%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -13.86%E -4.40%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.17%EV -12.38%E -4.27%K -6.51%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-10 17:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.78%EV -15.12%E -7.56%K -15.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -9.76%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.68%EV -10.87%E -3.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-11 00:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.88%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.30%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%1.4%2026-10-11 11:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.73%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.56%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.71%1.8%2026-10-11 08:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.73%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.56%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.71%1.8%2026-10-11 06:55
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%2.0%2026-10-10 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.52%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.43%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.05%2.3%2026-10-11 08:35