The School of Odds
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Talleres v Boca Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 29.87%3.35fair odd
EV +1.56%
Edge +0.458%
Kelly +0.649%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.58%30.15%29.32%32.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.043.003.4036.36%32.92%33.33%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 38.45%2.60fair odd
EV +5.74%
Edge +2.09%
Kelly +3.28%
Growth +0.188%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.25%38.10%39.13%41.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.312.302.7547.62%43.24%43.48%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.68%3.16fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.577%
Kelly -0.852%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.00%31.75%31.55%33.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.872.853.1037.74%34.81%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Talleres (Local): 29.87%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 38.45%; Draw: 31.68%. For Boca Juniors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -13.98%E -4.85%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV +5.74%E +2.09%K +3.28%G +0.188%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -9.71%E -3.41%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-27 02:30
Betsson🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -13.98%E -4.85%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV +5.74%E +2.09%K +3.28%G +0.188%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -9.71%E -3.41%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-27 02:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.26%EV -13.68%E -4.73%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -0.801%E -0.310%K -0.507%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.60%EV -6.54%E -2.22%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-28 00:38
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -13.98%E -4.85%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -7.72%E -3.22%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -8.76%E -3.04%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-28 00:35
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -8.49%E -3.57%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -11.29%E -4.03%K -6.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-27 10:35
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -1.43%E -0.433%K -0.622%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -9.64%E -4.10%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -1.79%E -0.577%K -0.852%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-24 20:15
1xBet🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 28.73%EV -2.63%E -0.805%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.85%EV -9.64%E -4.10%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -5.59%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-26 23:35
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -9.64%E -4.10%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.96%E -1.65%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-26 20:03
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -2.92%E -0.900%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.57%E -5.03%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -4.96%E -1.65%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-24 20:29
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.40%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -11.57%E -5.03%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.12%E -2.80%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-27 10:24
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.29%EV -17.86%E -6.49%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -11.57%E -5.03%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.29%EV -12.88%E -4.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-28 00:35
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV +1.56%E +0.458%K +0.649%G +0.010%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -13.49%E -6.00%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -3.37%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 19:16
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.50%EV -11.88%E -4.03%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.48%EV -17.33%E -8.06%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -8.12%E -2.80%K -4.28%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-25 05:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -10.39%E -3.46%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -17.33%E -8.06%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -11.29%E -4.03%K -6.27%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-25 05:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -10.39%E -3.46%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -17.33%E -8.06%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -11.29%E -4.03%K -6.27%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-26 08:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 28.94%EV -10.99%E -3.69%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 40.48%EV -18.10%E -8.50%K -16.02%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.58%EV -10.66%E -3.78%K -5.86%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-25 05:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.59%EV -7.40%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.73%EV -19.26%E -9.17%K -17.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.68%EV -14.46%E -5.36%K -8.51%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-26 20:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.00%EV -16.37%E -5.84%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.00%EV -19.26%E -9.17%K -17.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.00%EV -11.29%E -4.03%K -6.27%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-25 05:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 28.77%EV -13.38%E -4.61%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 39.74%EV -19.26%E -9.17%K -17.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.49%EV -16.04%E -6.05%K -9.72%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-24 20:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 22.41%2.52I 39.68%NM 28.46%1.46I 68.49%NM 49.13%39.4%2026-03-27 20:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 22.41%2.52I 39.68%NM 28.46%1.46I 68.49%NM 49.13%39.4%2026-03-27 20:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 22.36%2.50I 40.00%NM 28.62%1.46I 68.49%NM 49.01%39.7%2026-03-27 20:35
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 22.69%2.50I 40.00%NM 28.13%1.43I 69.93%NM 49.18%42.2%2026-03-27 07:34