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Sarmiento de Junin v Rosario Central

2026-10-31 00:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prediction 25.94%3.86fair odd
EV -5.33%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.80%25.94%25.94%26.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.533.603.6530.77%28.30%27.78%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rosario Central (Visit)

Prediction 43.94%2.28fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -3.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.38%43.94%43.94%44.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.112.1850.00%47.62%47.39%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.12%3.32fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.75%30.12%30.12%30.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.063.103.1534.48%32.68%32.26%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 25.94%; Rosario Central (Visit): 43.94%; Draw: 30.12%. For Rosario Central (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.18, with an expected value of -4.20%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.99%EV -5.33%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.51%EV -4.20%E -1.93%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.50%EV -6.33%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 20:35
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.63%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -5.52%E -2.57%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 20:14
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -6.63%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.84%E -3.23%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 19:49
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.63%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.72%E -3.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 19:49
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.92%E -4.84%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 19:49
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.70%EV -15.71%E -4.83%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.38%EV -12.11%E -6.06%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-18 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%1.13I 88.50%NM 32.74%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%170.3%2026-10-18 23:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%1.13I 88.50%NM 32.74%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%170.3%2026-10-18 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-18 21:45