The School of Odds
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Sarmiento de Junin v Rosario Central

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 00:15 UTC

Final: Sarmiento de Junin 1–2 Rosario Central

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prediction 22.33%4.48fair odd
EV +2.71%
Edge +0.590%
Kelly +0.754%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.89%22.35%22.36%23.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.134.104.6026.67%24.22%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rosario Central (Visit)

Prediction 50.54%1.98fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.41%50.53%50.51%51.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.831.841.9160.24%54.68%54.35%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -0.878%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.25%27.12%27.13%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.403.5731.25%29.32%29.41%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 22.33%; Rosario Central (Visit): 50.54%; Draw: 27.13%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.48. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV +2.71%E +0.590%K +0.754%G +0.020%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.10%EV -4.99%E -2.65%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.01%EV -6.93%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-31 00:10
Pinnacle🎯4.49I 22.27%NM 21.56%EV +0.257%E +0.057%K +0.074%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.69%EV -3.47%E -1.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.74%EV -5.30%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-31 00:05
BetOnline.ag🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%EV -1.75%E -0.398%K -0.516%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.05%EV -4.48%E -2.37%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.03%EV -3.13%E -0.878%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-31 00:10
LowVig.ag🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%EV -1.75%E -0.398%K -0.516%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.05%EV -4.48%E -2.37%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.03%EV -3.13%E -0.878%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-31 00:10
BetAnything🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%EV -1.75%E -0.398%K -0.516%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.05%EV -4.48%E -2.37%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.03%EV -3.13%E -0.878%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-31 00:10
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -3.99%E -0.927%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.78%EV -5.49%E -2.94%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-30 23:35
SportsBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -3.99%E -0.927%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.51%EV -6.00%E -3.23%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 00:05
FanDuel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -3.99%E -0.927%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 00:04
Unibet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -5.10%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -8.02%E -4.41%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 00:05
Unibet (SE)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -5.10%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -8.02%E -4.41%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 00:05
Codere (IT)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -6.22%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.52%EV -5.49%E -2.94%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 00:00
DraftKings🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.22%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.32%EV -5.49%E -2.94%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.39%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.22%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 00:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.22%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 00:00
BetMGM🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.22%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 00:00
Betway🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.22%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 00:05
Neds🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.22%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 00:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.22%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 00:00
BetRivers🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -6.22%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-30 23:45
Betsson🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -8.45%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.65%EV -3.98%E -2.09%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -6.39%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 00:10
NordicBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -8.45%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.65%EV -3.98%E -2.09%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -6.39%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 00:10
theScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -8.45%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -5.49%E -2.94%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.39%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 00:00
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -8.45%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -4.99%E -2.65%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 00:10
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -8.45%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.44%EV -4.49%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-30 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -8.45%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.39%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-31 00:00
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -10.68%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -5.49%E -2.94%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 00:10
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.68%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 21:25
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -10.68%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-30 23:45
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -10.68%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-30 23:35
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -10.68%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.88%EV -11.05%E -6.28%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -9.10%E -2.72%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 00:05
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -10.68%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -11.56%E -6.61%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -9.10%E -2.72%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-31 00:10
NetBet (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -10.68%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -11.56%E -6.61%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-31 00:06
Winamax (DE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -11.80%E -2.99%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -6.39%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-31 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.16%EV -11.80%E -2.99%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 50.90%EV -13.08%E -7.60%K -18.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.94%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-31 00:05
Bet Right🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -12.92%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-30 23:50
Sky Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -12.92%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.17%E -4.12%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-30 23:59
Betclic (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.48%EV -12.92%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 50.38%EV -12.06%E -6.93%K -16.30%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.14%EV -12.36%E -3.83%K -5.54%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-30 23:58
Unibet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 21.98%EV -12.92%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.64%EV -16.11%E -9.70%K -24.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.38%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-31 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -15.15%E -3.99%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.65%EV -8.02%E -4.41%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-30 23:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.21%EV -16.27%E -4.34%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 50.02%EV -12.06%E -6.93%K -16.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.78%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-31 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.02%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.82%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-10-31 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.02%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.82%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-10-31 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.02%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.82%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-10-31 00:10
Smarkets◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.02%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.82%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-10-31 00:05
Kalshi◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.74%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-10-31 00:00

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