The School of Odds
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Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prediction 18.01%5.55fair odd
EV -0.944%
Edge -0.172%
Kelly -0.210%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.16%17.93%17.97%19.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.965.005.5022.22%20.15%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 54.70%1.83fair odd
EV -6.46%
Edge -3.78%
Kelly -9.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.35%54.79%54.75%55.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.661.671.7162.89%60.31%59.88%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.29%3.66fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.71%27.29%27.28%27.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.323.403.5032.79%30.09%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 18.01%; River Plate (Visit): 54.70%; Draw: 27.29%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.50, with an expected value of -0.944%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV -0.944%E -0.172%K -0.210%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.86%EV -7.55%E -4.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.49%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-27 11:49
SportsBet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -5.45%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.55%E -4.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -4.49%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-21 07:57
FanDuel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -6.35%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.31%EV -7.55%E -4.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.49%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 07:57
Marathon Bet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -6.35%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.74%EV -7.01%E -4.12%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-26 23:55
Codere (IT)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.88%EV -6.35%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.37%EV -6.46%E -3.78%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -8.59%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-25 21:04
theScore Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -9.95%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.49%EV -7.55%E -4.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-25 21:05
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.95%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -8.65%E -5.18%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-29 15:10
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.95%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -8.65%E -5.18%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-27 22:45
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -9.95%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -9.74%E -5.90%K -14.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-21 07:58
NetBet (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -9.95%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.55%EV -11.93%E -7.41%K -19.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.88%EV -14.05%E -4.46%K -6.53%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-29 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 18.21%EV -12.65%E -2.61%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.19%EV -10.83%E -6.65%K -17.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.60%EV -12.68%E -3.96%K -5.76%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-25 21:05
Unibet (FR)🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 18.35%EV -16.25%E -3.50%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 53.67%EV -13.02%E -8.19%K -22.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.98%EV -16.77%E -5.50%K -8.18%G +0.000%17.2%2026-09-25 21:05
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.16%EV -17.15%E -3.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 53.73%EV -10.29%E -6.27%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.11%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-25 21:05
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.29%EV -18.95%E -4.21%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.58%EV -11.38%E -7.03%K -18.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.13%EV -12.68%E -3.96%K -5.76%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-21 07:59
Winamax (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.21%EV -18.95%E -4.21%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.35%EV -11.38%E -7.03%K -18.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.44%EV -14.05%E -4.46%K -6.53%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-25 21:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎4.60I 21.74%NM 18.70%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.10%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.20%16.3%2026-09-27 22:40