The School of Odds
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Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prediction 17.90%5.59fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -0.623%
Kelly -0.764%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.18%17.90%17.46%18.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.205.255.4020.41%19.23%19.05%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 54.97%1.82fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -5.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.48%54.97%55.26%55.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.681.691.7463.29%59.52%59.35%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.14%3.69fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -0.875%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.34%27.14%27.28%27.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.443.5731.25%29.17%29.11%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 17.90%; River Plate (Visit): 54.97%; Draw: 27.14%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.57, with an expected value of -3.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.52%EV -3.36%E -0.623%K -0.764%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.98%EV -7.10%E -4.20%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.50%EV -3.13%E -0.875%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-02 20:45
1xBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.94%EV -5.15%E -0.972%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.65%EV -4.36%E -2.50%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.40%EV -5.84%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 23:05
BetAnything🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -5.15%E -0.972%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.66%EV -9.30%E -5.64%K -14.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -7.74%E -2.28%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 12:20
Bovada🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -6.94%E -1.33%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67%EV -7.65%E -4.56%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -3.67%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-02 20:39
NetBet (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.18%EV -8.73%E -1.71%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.45%EV -13.15%E -8.32%K -22.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -13.17%E -4.11%K -5.98%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-29 16:10
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -12.31%E -2.51%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -4.36%E -2.50%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.53%EV -8.28%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-28 09:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.