The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate

2026-10-04 22:45 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prediction 17.51%5.71fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.447%
Kelly -0.545%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.04%17.51%17.58%17.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.275.255.5720.00%18.98%19.03%17.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 55.18%1.81fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.04%55.18%54.95%56.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.691.701.7662.50%59.17%58.82%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.31%3.66fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.542%
Kelly -0.751%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.45%27.31%27.47%28.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.383.353.5931.25%29.63%29.81%27.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 17.51%; River Plate (Visit): 55.18%; Draw: 27.31%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.59, with an expected value of -1.95%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.57I 17.95%NM 17.04%EV -2.49%E -0.447%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.51%EV -7.30%E -4.34%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.45%EV -1.95%E -0.542%K -0.751%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-21 10:39
1xBet🎯5.31I 18.83%NM 17.91%EV -7.04%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.04%EV -2.88%E -1.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.05%EV -7.41%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 10:44
Marathon Bet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -8.97%E -1.72%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.09%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.02%EV -9.32%E -2.81%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-21 10:54
NetBet (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.58%EV -12.47%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.95%EV -11.71%E -7.32%K -19.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -12.60%E -3.94%K -5.73%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-21 10:46
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.