Language:English
Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sarmiento de Junin (Local)
Prediction 14.36%6.96fair odd
EV +4.12%
Edge +0.568%
Kelly +0.659%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 7.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.34%14.38%14.28%15.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.486.507.2517.54%15.44%15.38%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
River Plate (Visit)
Prediction 62.06%1.61fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -5.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.98%62.05%62.09%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.491.501.5672.46%67.19%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.58%4.24fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.459%
Kelly -0.604%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.83%23.56%23.64%25.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.913.904.1627.78%25.57%25.64%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 14.36%; River Plate (Visit): 62.06%; Draw: 23.58%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.96. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.12%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.34%EV +4.12%E +0.568%K +0.659%G +0.027% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.23%EV -5.05%E -3.30%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 23.42%EV -2.62%E -0.633%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-14 21:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.34%EV +4.12%E +0.568%K +0.659%G +0.027% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.23%EV -5.05%E -3.30%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 23.42%EV -2.62%E -0.633%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-14 21:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.18I 13.93%NM 13.42%EV +3.11%E +0.433%K +0.503%G +0.016% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.41%EV -5.67%E -3.73%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.17%EV -1.91%E -0.459%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-14 21:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 7.12I 14.04%NM 13.47%EV +2.25%E +0.316%K +0.367%G +0.008% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.49%EV -3.19%E -2.04%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.04%EV -9.69%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-14 21:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.68%EV +0.526%E +0.075%K +0.088%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.98%EV -5.67%E -3.73%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.35%EV -3.32%E -0.810%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-14 21:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.62%EV +0.526%E +0.075%K +0.088%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.13%EV -6.29%E -4.17%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -3.32%E -0.810%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-14 21:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.526%E +0.075%K +0.088%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.92%EV -6.91%E -4.61%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.68%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-14 21:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 6.95I 14.39%NM 13.74%EV -0.192%E -0.028%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.84%EV -5.67%E -3.73%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.41%EV -3.79%E -0.930%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 21:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -3.06%E -0.454%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.77%EV -7.53%E -5.05%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -5.68%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-14 21:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.30%EV -5.22%E -0.791%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.10%EV -5.67%E -3.73%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.68%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-14 21:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.19%EV -5.94%E -0.906%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.91%E -4.61%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -8.04%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-14 21:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.17%EV -5.05%E -3.30%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -3.32%E -0.810%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 20:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.81%EV -5.05%E -3.30%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -5.68%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-14 21:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.96%EV -5.67%E -3.73%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.68%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-14 21:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -8.15%E -5.51%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.68%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-14 21:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -8.15%E -5.51%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.68%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-14 21:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.52%EV -6.91%E -4.61%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -10.40%E -2.74%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-14 20:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.22%EV -8.15%E -5.51%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -8.04%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-14 21:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.32%EV -6.91%E -4.61%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.58%E -3.09%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-14 21:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.12%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.03%EV -8.15%E -5.51%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -9.22%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-14 21:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -10.63%E -7.39%K -24.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -10.40%E -2.74%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-14 21:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -6.65%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -10.63%E -7.39%K -24.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -10.40%E -2.74%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-14 21:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.63%EV -9.53%E -1.51%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.44%EV -6.91%E -4.61%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.22%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-14 20:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.63%EV -9.53%E -1.51%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.44%EV -6.91%E -4.61%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.22%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-14 20:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.07%EV -9.53%E -1.51%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.98%EV -11.26%E -7.87%K -26.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -12.75%E -3.45%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-14 21:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -10.25%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.08%EV -5.05%E -3.30%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -8.04%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-14 21:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.94%EV -10.25%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -5.67%E -3.73%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -6.86%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-14 21:53 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.74%EV -10.25%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.24%EV -8.15%E -5.51%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.68%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-14 21:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -10.25%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.29%EV -8.15%E -5.51%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -11.58%E -3.09%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-14 21:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -10.25%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.97%EV -10.01%E -6.91%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -10.40%E -2.74%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-14 21:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -10.25%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.97%EV -10.01%E -6.91%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -10.40%E -2.74%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-14 21:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.40%EV -12.40%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.86%EV -11.88%E -8.36%K -28.28%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -12.75%E -3.45%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-10-14 21:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -13.84%E -2.31%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.05%E -3.30%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.68%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-14 21:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.63%EV -13.84%E -2.31%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -10.63%E -7.39%K -24.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -15.11%E -4.20%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-14 21:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.35%EV -13.84%E -2.31%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 62.38%EV -14.36%E -10.40%K -37.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.27%EV -12.75%E -3.45%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-10-14 21:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.48%EV -15.27%E -2.59%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.70%EV -8.15%E -5.51%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -5.68%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-14 21:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.86%EV -15.27%E -2.59%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.31%EV -11.26%E -7.87%K -26.17%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 23.83%EV -13.23%E -3.59%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-14 21:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.71%EV -18.14%E -3.18%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.33%EV -9.39%E -6.43%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -8.04%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-14 21:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.14% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.63% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.23% | 0.1% | 2026-10-14 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.09% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.77% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.14% | 0.5% | 2026-10-14 21:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.09% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.77% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.14% | 0.5% | 2026-10-14 21:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.32% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.20% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47% | 1.4% | 2026-10-14 21:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.69% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.79% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52% | 2.1% | 2026-10-14 21:55 |