The School of Odds
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Sarmiento de Junin v Barracas Central

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 22:00 UTC

Final: Sarmiento de Junin 1–1 Barracas Central

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prediction 40.38%2.48fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.30%40.53%40.31%43.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.262.302.4049.50%44.31%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barracas Central (Visit)

Prediction 28.34%3.53fair odd
EV +4.86%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.80%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.42%28.19%28.38%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.333.303.7032.79%30.06%30.30%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.28%3.20fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -0.983%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.22%31.27%31.31%32.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.953.1036.36%34.11%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 40.38%; Barracas Central (Visit): 28.34%; Draw: 31.28%. For Barracas Central (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -13.17%E -6.13%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV +4.86%E +1.31%K +1.80%G +0.088%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.61%E -1.51%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-19 21:30
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -13.17%E -6.13%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV +4.86%E +1.31%K +1.80%G +0.088%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.61%E -1.51%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-19 21:30
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.87%EV -5.10%E -2.17%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.46%EV +2.88%E +0.793%K +1.09%G +0.031%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.67%EV -8.05%E -2.74%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-19 21:55
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -14.39%E -6.79%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV +2.03%E +0.563%K +0.780%G +0.016%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 21:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -16.41%E -7.93%K -15.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -0.807%E -0.231%K -0.323%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.11%EV -9.93%E -3.45%K -5.28%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-19 21:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -16.41%E -7.93%K -15.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -0.807%E -0.231%K -0.323%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.11%EV -9.93%E -3.45%K -5.28%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-19 21:30
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.08%E -1.28%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.88%EV -1.66%E -0.478%K -0.671%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.82%EV -4.92%E -1.62%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-19 21:50
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.10%E -2.17%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -2.22%E -0.645%K -0.908%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.15%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.03%EV -4.29%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.82%EV -3.36%E -0.985%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.03%EV -4.29%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.82%EV -3.36%E -0.985%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 21:55
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -7.12%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-19 21:54
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -7.12%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.19%EV -18.42%E -9.12%K -18.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.66%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.16%EV -12.43%E -4.44%K -6.91%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-19 21:30
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -3.08%E -1.28%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -6.48%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-19 21:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.38%EV -5.50%E -2.35%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -6.48%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.98%EV -4.61%E -1.51%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-19 21:30
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.12%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.48%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-19 21:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.10%E -2.17%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.48%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-19 21:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.27%EV -6.71%E -2.91%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.48%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.54%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 21:54
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -9.14%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -6.48%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -12.43%E -4.44%K -6.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -11.16%E -5.07%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -6.48%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -12.43%E -4.44%K -6.91%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-19 21:50
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -5.10%E -2.17%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 21:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.12%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-19 21:15
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.12%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-19 21:10
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.12%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-19 21:30
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.12%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-19 21:55
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -6.31%E -2.72%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.67%EV -8.68%E -2.97%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 21:50
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -6.31%E -2.72%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.67%EV -8.68%E -2.97%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 21:50
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -9.14%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-19 21:55
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -9.14%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-19 21:40
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -9.14%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -9.93%E -3.45%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-19 21:35
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -11.16%E -5.07%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -13.99%E -5.09%K -8.00%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-19 21:17
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -5.10%E -2.17%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-19 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -9.14%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-19 21:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.52%EV -11.16%E -5.07%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.61%EV -11.80%E -4.19%K -6.49%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-19 21:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -9.14%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -10.73%E -3.41%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-19 21:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.01%EV -17.21%E -8.40%K -16.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.78%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.22%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-19 21:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.69%EV -13.17%E -6.13%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.40%EV -12.71%E -4.13%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 30.91%EV -11.49%E -4.06%K -6.28%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-19 21:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.53%EV -11.16%E -5.07%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -13.56%E -4.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.23%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-19 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04%0.7%2026-10-19 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-10-19 21:55
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.56%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72%1.0%2026-10-19 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%1.4%2026-10-19 21:55
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.31%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72%1.7%2026-10-19 21:40