The School of Odds
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Sarmiento de Junin v Barracas Central

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prediction 41.49%2.41fair odd
EV -4.57%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.23%41.35%41.33%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.192.202.3050.51%45.69%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barracas Central (Visit)

Prediction 26.91%3.72fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.71%27.12%27.03%28.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.293.253.5533.33%30.41%30.77%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.60%3.16fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.63%31.52%31.63%32.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.903.0537.04%34.60%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 41.49%; Barracas Central (Visit): 26.91%; Draw: 31.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -3.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.29%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.06%EV -5.55%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 01:29
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -12.54%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -3.62%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 01:40
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -12.54%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -3.62%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:43
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 01:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -6.65%E -2.96%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.03%EV -7.43%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.63%EV -7.09%E -2.41%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 01:42
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -7.89%E -3.56%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -4.47%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.02%EV -8.36%E -2.88%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 01:00
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.36%E -2.88%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-04 06:40
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -16.58%E -5.35%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -8.36%E -2.88%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-04 01:39
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -10.80%E -5.02%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -19.27%E -6.42%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -11.52%E -4.11%K -6.40%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-04 01:52
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.14%EV -12.87%E -6.13%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.83%EV -12.15%E -4.37%K -6.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-04 01:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.73%EV -12.87%E -6.13%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -12.54%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.30%EV -11.52%E -4.11%K -6.40%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-04 01:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.91%EV -14.95%E -7.29%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.24%EV -13.10%E -4.76%K -7.48%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-04 01:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 42.86%EV -17.85%E -9.02%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.71%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.43%EV -14.68%E -5.44%K -8.63%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-04 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-04 01:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-04 01:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-04 01:30