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Sarmiento de Junin v Aldosivi Mar del Plata
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sarmiento de Junin (Local)
Prediction 38.92%2.57fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.57%39.11%38.80%42.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.342.382.4647.17%42.68%42.02%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit)
Prediction 26.61%3.76fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +0.633%
Kelly +0.854%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.30%26.55%26.71%28.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.513.503.8532.26%28.48%28.57%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 34.48%2.90fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.611%
Kelly -0.941%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.97%34.34%34.49%35.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.702.722.8542.55%37.02%36.76%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 38.92%; Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit): 26.61%; Draw: 34.48%. For Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -13.22%E -5.93%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV +2.44%E +0.633%K +0.854%G +0.021% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -1.74%E -0.611%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -13.22%E -5.93%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV +2.44%E +0.633%K +0.854%G +0.021% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -1.74%E -0.611%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -13.22%E -5.93%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV +2.44%E +0.633%K +0.854%G +0.021% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -1.74%E -0.611%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 17:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.31%EV -4.26%E -1.73%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.65%EV +0.307%E +0.081%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.04%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.21%EV -5.43%E -2.24%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -1.56%E -0.420%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.03%EV -6.22%E -2.29%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.21%EV -5.43%E -2.24%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -1.56%E -0.420%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.03%EV -6.22%E -2.29%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.43%EV -16.72%E -7.81%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -1.56%E -0.420%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -5.19%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-22 17:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.43%EV -16.72%E -7.81%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -1.56%E -0.420%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -5.19%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-22 17:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.41%EV -17.50%E -8.25%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.30%EV -1.56%E -0.420%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.30%EV -6.91%E -2.56%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-22 17:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.98%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.36%EV -3.15%E -0.866%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.66%EV -1.74%E -0.611%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.19%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-22 18:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.91%E -2.56%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.64%E -3.26%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-22 18:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.67%E -3.69%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-22 18:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -7.38%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.08%EV -4.75%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.70%EV -7.26%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.74%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.19%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 18:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.19%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 18:17 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.19%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.63%EV -6.22%E -2.29%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.63%EV -6.22%E -2.29%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.63%EV -7.77%E -3.28%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -3.47%E -1.24%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 17:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -8.55%E -3.64%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -3.47%E -1.24%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 17:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -8.64%E -3.26%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.38%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -9.67%E -3.69%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-22 17:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -10.49%E -4.56%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -10.36%E -3.98%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-22 18:03 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.19%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.91%E -2.56%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-22 18:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.91%E -2.56%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-22 18:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -10.49%E -4.56%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -13.81%E -5.52%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-22 18:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.55%E -3.64%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -5.19%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-22 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.49%E -4.56%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 27.28%EV -13.00%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.92%EV -9.33%E -3.55%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-22 18:21 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -8.55%E -3.64%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -13.53%E -4.16%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -5.19%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -8.55%E -3.64%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -13.53%E -4.16%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -6.91%E -2.56%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-22 18:00 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -10.49%E -4.56%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -14.86%E -4.64%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -10.36%E -3.98%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 38.66%EV -16.33%E -7.59%K -14.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 25.97%EV -14.86%E -4.64%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 35.37%EV -18.98%E -8.08%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-03-22 18:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.84%EV -12.44%E -5.53%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -17.52%E -5.65%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.97%EV -8.64%E -3.26%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-03-22 18:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.57%EV -10.49%E -4.56%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -17.52%E -5.65%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.56%EV -13.81%E -5.52%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-03-22 18:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 39.00% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.60% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.40% | 0.2% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.19% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.29% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.19% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.29% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.19% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.29% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.92% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.81% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.28% | 2.0% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |