The School of Odds
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San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 22:15 UTC

Final: San Lorenzo 0–0 Newells Old Boys

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Lorenzo (Local)

Prediction 35.36%2.83fair odd
EV -0.637%
Edge -0.227%
Kelly -0.352%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%35.48%35.24%38.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.582.622.8143.86%38.73%38.17%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newells Old Boys (Visit)

Prediction 31.14%3.21fair odd
EV -0.339%
Edge -0.106%
Kelly -0.154%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.24%31.12%31.18%32.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.993.003.2035.71%33.49%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.50%2.99fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -0.987%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.86%33.40%33.57%34.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.802.9038.46%36.00%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Lorenzo (Local): 35.36%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 31.14%; Draw: 33.50%. For Newells Old Boys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -0.339%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.45%EV -0.637%E -0.227%K -0.352%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.23%EV -3.45%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.33%EV -5.54%E -1.97%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-24 22:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.11%EV -2.76%E -1.00%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -1.90%E -0.602%K -0.882%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.24%EV -5.54%E -1.97%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 22:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.11%EV -2.76%E -1.00%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -1.90%E -0.602%K -0.882%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.24%EV -5.54%E -1.97%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 22:00
BetAnything🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.11%EV -2.76%E -1.00%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -1.90%E -0.602%K -0.882%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.24%EV -5.54%E -1.97%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 22:00
1xBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.92%EV -2.76%E -1.00%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.38%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.70%EV -4.54%E -1.59%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 22:05
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.84%EV -3.82%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.09%EV -6.88%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 22:10
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.64%EV -3.82%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -8.13%E -2.75%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.41%EV -5.54%E -1.97%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 22:10
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -4.53%E -1.68%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -6.21%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 22:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -4.53%E -1.68%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -10.62%E -3.70%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%EV -2.86%E -0.987%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 22:10
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -4.53%E -1.68%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -8.13%E -2.75%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.21%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 22:10
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.53%E -1.68%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 22:04
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -4.53%E -1.68%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 22:05
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -6.29%E -2.38%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -2.86%E -0.987%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 22:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -6.29%E -2.38%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.21%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 21:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.14%EV -6.29%E -2.38%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.24%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.62%EV -9.90%E -3.68%K -5.86%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 21:50
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -6.29%E -2.38%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 21:55
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.29%E -2.38%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -3.53%E -1.23%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 22:10
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -6.29%E -2.38%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -9.68%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.21%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 22:10
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -7.36%E -2.81%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -9.68%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -6.21%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 22:10
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -7.36%E -2.81%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -10.31%E -3.58%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -12.24%E -4.67%K -7.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 22:05
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -8.06%E -3.10%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.70%EV -10.31%E -3.58%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.19%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 22:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -8.06%E -3.10%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -9.68%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -12.91%E -4.97%K -8.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 22:05
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -9.83%E -3.86%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -8.13%E -2.75%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -6.21%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 22:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -9.83%E -3.86%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -9.68%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -6.21%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 21:55
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -11.60%E -4.64%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.21%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 09:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -11.60%E -4.64%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -9.68%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 22:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.60%E -4.64%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 21:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -11.60%E -4.64%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.46%EV -9.06%E -3.10%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.95%EV -12.24%E -4.67%K -7.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.83%EV -13.37%E -5.46%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.80%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.37%EV -11.91%E -4.53%K -7.30%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 21:53
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.50%EV -14.07%E -5.79%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -0.339%E -0.106%K -0.154%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -2.86%E -0.987%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 21:50
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.50%EV -14.07%E -5.79%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -0.339%E -0.106%K -0.154%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -2.86%E -0.987%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 21:50
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -15.13%E -6.31%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -3.45%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -4.54%E -1.59%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 21:50
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -15.13%E -6.31%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.62%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 15:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -17.61%E -7.56%K -13.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.90%EV -6.21%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -17.61%E -7.56%K -13.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.90%EV -6.21%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.38%EV -18.67%E -8.12%K -14.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.17%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.45%EV -11.24%E -4.24%K -6.81%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-24 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.43%EV -19.38%E -8.50%K -15.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.70%EV -8.13%E -2.75%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.72%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%0.7%2026-10-24 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.04%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.88%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.08%1.2%2026-10-24 22:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.04%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.88%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.08%1.2%2026-10-24 22:10
Smarkets◎2.82I 35.46%NM 34.88%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.73%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.39%1.7%2026-10-24 22:10
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.29%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.43%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.29%2.0%2026-10-24 22:10