The School of Odds
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San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys

2026-10-24 22:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Lorenzo (Local)

Prediction 36.88%2.71fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.04%36.88%36.82%38.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.422.422.6245.45%41.27%41.41%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newells Old Boys (Visit)

Prediction 30.52%3.28fair odd
EV -6.90%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.30%30.52%30.68%31.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.942.993.0535.71%33.97%33.50%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.60%3.07fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.87%32.60%32.50%32.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.772.752.9338.02%36.15%36.36%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: San Lorenzo (Local): 36.88%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 30.52%; Draw: 32.60%. For San Lorenzo (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.62, with an expected value of -3.38%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.21%EV -3.38%E -1.29%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.41%EV -7.82%E -2.59%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.38%EV -4.49%E -1.53%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 22:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.04%EV -4.85%E -1.88%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.10%EV -8.73%E -2.92%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.86%EV -7.75%E -2.74%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 22:34
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -6.90%E -2.26%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.10%E -2.49%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 22:35
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -8.43%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -7.10%E -2.49%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 22:33
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -9.65%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.43%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.36%E -3.77%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 22:35
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.30%EV -12.23%E -5.14%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.85%EV -14.53%E -5.19%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.85%EV -14.27%E -5.43%K -8.75%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-11 22:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.70%EV -13.34%E -5.67%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.73%EV -9.04%E -3.03%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.57%EV -11.34%E -4.17%K -6.59%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-11 22:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.52%EV -13.34%E -5.67%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -10.36%E -3.77%K -5.92%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-11 22:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -15.18%E -6.60%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -14.53%E -5.19%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -11.99%E -4.44%K -7.05%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-11 22:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.63%EV -18.87%E -8.58%K -15.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.30%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.07%EV -13.62%E -5.14%K -8.25%G +0.000%17.7%2026-10-11 22:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.