The School of Odds
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San Lorenzo v Deportivo Riestra

2026-10-11 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Lorenzo (Local)

Prediction 42.03%2.38fair odd
EV -5.02%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.35%42.00%42.03%42.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.152.202.2650.51%46.48%45.45%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 24.75%4.04fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.35%24.77%24.75%26.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.613.703.8130.30%27.67%27.03%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.23%3.01fair odd
EV -4.31%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.33%33.24%33.23%33.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.732.752.8839.22%36.69%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: San Lorenzo (Local): 42.03%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 24.75%; Draw: 33.23%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.88, with an expected value of -4.31%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.02%E -2.22%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.95%EV -5.72%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.00%EV -4.31%E -1.50%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-21 02:39
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.44%E -2.42%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.44%E -2.28%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.97%E -2.49%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-21 02:34
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.44%E -2.42%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.44%E -2.28%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.97%E -2.49%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-21 02:33
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.44%E -2.42%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.44%E -2.28%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.97%E -2.49%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-21 06:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.11%EV -7.12%E -3.22%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.88%EV -7.45%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.00%EV -6.30%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-21 02:48
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.54%E -3.43%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -7.20%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -8.63%E -3.14%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-21 06:53
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -7.54%E -3.43%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -10.92%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -10.29%E -3.81%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-21 02:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.51%EV -8.38%E -3.84%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -5.97%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.10%EV -6.97%E -2.49%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-21 02:04
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.35%EV -9.64%E -4.48%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.29%EV -18.34%E -5.56%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.36%EV -13.61%E -5.23%K -8.51%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-21 02:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.64%EV -13.84%E -6.75%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -13.39%E -3.83%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.38%EV -10.29%E -3.81%K -6.05%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-21 02:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.84%EV -15.94%E -7.97%K -15.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.83%EV -14.63%E -4.24%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.33%EV -11.95%E -4.51%K -7.24%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-21 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 42.42%EV -16.36%E -8.22%K -16.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.47%EV -14.63%E -4.24%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.11%EV -15.27%E -5.99%K -9.85%G +0.000%18.5%2026-09-21 02:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 42.80%EV -16.79%E -8.48%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 24.35%EV -13.89%E -3.99%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 32.85%EV -14.28%E -5.53%K -9.03%G +0.000%18.0%2026-09-21 02:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 02:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 02:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 02:34