The School of Odds
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San Lorenzo v Deportivo Riestra

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 17:45 UTC

Final: San Lorenzo 1–0 Deportivo Riestra

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Lorenzo (Local)

Prediction 35.22%2.84fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.618%
Kelly -0.963%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.23%35.30%35.25%38.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.592.612.7943.48%38.65%38.31%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 30.51%3.28fair odd
EV +2.21%
Edge +0.661%
Kelly +0.942%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.89%30.43%30.47%31.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.073.053.3535.09%32.56%32.79%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.26%2.92fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.03%34.27%34.28%35.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.712.732.8038.46%36.92%36.63%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Lorenzo (Local): 35.22%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 30.51%; Draw: 34.26%. For Deportivo Riestra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -13.70%E -5.59%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV +2.21%E +0.661%K +0.942%G +0.021%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 17:24
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -13.70%E -5.59%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV +2.21%E +0.661%K +0.942%G +0.021%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 17:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.25%EV -3.48%E -1.27%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.36%EV +0.384%E +0.117%K +0.167%G +0.001%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.38%EV -6.46%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 17:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.25%EV -3.48%E -1.27%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.36%EV +0.384%E +0.117%K +0.167%G +0.001%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.38%EV -6.46%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 17:25
BetAnything🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.25%EV -3.48%E -1.27%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.36%EV +0.384%E +0.117%K +0.167%G +0.001%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.38%EV -6.46%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 17:20
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.77%EV -14.40%E -5.93%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -0.837%E -0.258%K -0.372%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -7.49%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 17:24
Pinnacle🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.69%EV -1.72%E -0.618%K -0.963%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV -2.36%E -0.738%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.07%EV -5.43%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-11 17:35
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -8.42%E -3.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -2.36%E -0.738%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -4.06%E -1.45%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 17:23
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -10.18%E -3.99%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -3.89%E -1.23%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 17:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.98%EV -17.22%E -7.33%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.34%EV -3.89%E -1.23%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -9.20%E -3.47%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-11 17:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.98%EV -17.22%E -7.33%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.34%EV -3.89%E -1.23%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -9.20%E -3.47%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-11 17:25
1xBet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.63%EV -2.43%E -0.877%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.74%EV -4.80%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.63%EV -5.09%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 17:38
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -3.13%E -1.14%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -5.41%E -1.75%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.49%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-11 17:40
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -6.66%E -2.51%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -5.41%E -1.75%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-11 17:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -6.66%E -2.51%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -5.41%E -1.75%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-11 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.73%EV -5.60%E -2.09%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.41%E -1.75%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.25%EV -9.54%E -3.61%K -5.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 17:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.07%EV -18.98%E -8.25%K -14.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -5.41%E -1.75%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.68%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-11 17:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -4.89%E -1.81%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -6.94%E -2.28%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 17:39
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -6.66%E -2.51%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -6.94%E -2.28%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 17:37
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -10.18%E -3.99%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -6.94%E -2.28%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.49%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 17:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -4.89%E -1.81%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -4.06%E -1.45%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 17:39
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -4.89%E -1.81%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.49%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 17:34
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -6.66%E -2.51%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 17:39
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -8.42%E -3.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-11 17:35
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.71%E -2.94%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -10.23%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-11 17:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -10.18%E -3.99%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -9.20%E -3.47%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-11 17:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.92%EV -11.94%E -4.78%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.15%EV -9.89%E -3.76%K -6.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 17:35
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.94%E -4.78%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.23%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-11 17:25
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -13.70%E -5.59%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -9.89%E -3.76%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-11 17:33
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.67%EV -11.94%E -4.78%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.03%EV -9.38%E -3.16%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.30%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 17:38
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.23%EV -3.13%E -1.14%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -9.99%E -3.39%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.86%EV -4.75%E -1.71%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 17:39
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.23%EV -3.13%E -1.14%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -9.99%E -3.39%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.86%EV -4.75%E -1.71%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 17:40
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.66%E -2.51%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -9.99%E -3.39%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -4.06%E -1.45%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 17:39
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -4.89%E -1.81%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -11.52%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.63%EV -10.18%E -3.99%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -11.52%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-11 17:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.35%EV -18.98%E -8.25%K -14.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.62%EV -11.52%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.04%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-11 17:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.80%EV -13.70%E -5.59%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.46%EV -12.13%E -4.21%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.74%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-11 17:38
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.67%EV -11.94%E -4.78%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -13.04%E -4.58%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -7.49%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.98%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.04%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.98%-0.0%2026-10-11 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.46%0.7%2026-10-11 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.91%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.62%1.0%2026-10-11 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.91%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.62%1.0%2026-10-11 17:40
Smarkets◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.38%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.25%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.37%1.7%2026-10-11 17:39