The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rosario Central v Independiente Rivadavia

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Final: Rosario Central 5–0 Independiente Rivadavia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rosario Central (Local)

Prediction 47.21%2.12fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.66%47.36%47.27%50.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.931.952.0557.47%51.72%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente Rivadavia (Visit)

Prediction 23.75%4.21fair odd
EV +4.48%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.31%23.69%23.77%24.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.973.964.4027.78%25.17%25.28%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.04%3.44fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.369%
Kelly -0.523%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.79%28.96%28.95%30.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.983.213.203.4033.56%31.14%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rosario Central (Local): 47.21%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visit): 23.75%; Draw: 29.04%. For Independiente Rivadavia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -12.66%E -6.84%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +4.48%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.059%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -2.71%E -0.808%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 19:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -12.66%E -6.84%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +4.48%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.059%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -2.71%E -0.808%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 19:30
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.52%EV -4.63%E -2.29%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.91%EV +4.01%E +0.915%K +1.19%G +0.047%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.57%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-11 19:54
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.51%EV -14.07%E -7.73%K -17.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV +0.920%E +0.216%K +0.283%G +0.003%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -4.16%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 19:30
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.91%EV -4.63%E -2.29%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.93%EV +0.207%E +0.049%K +0.064%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.15%EV -3.58%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-11 19:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.85%EV -4.63%E -2.29%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.96%EV -0.030%E -0.007%K -0.009%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.20%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 19:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.85%EV -4.63%E -2.29%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.96%EV -0.030%E -0.007%K -0.009%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.20%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 19:39
BetAnything🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.85%EV -4.63%E -2.29%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.96%EV -0.030%E -0.007%K -0.009%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.20%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 19:39
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.58%EV -6.52%E -3.29%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.64%E -0.644%K -0.852%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 19:49
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.58%EV -6.52%E -3.29%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.64%E -0.644%K -0.852%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 19:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.24%EV -15.96%E -8.97%K -20.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.81%EV -2.64%E -0.644%K -0.852%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 19:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.24%EV -15.96%E -8.97%K -20.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.81%EV -2.64%E -0.644%K -0.852%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 19:29
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -5.02%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -4.16%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:15
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -7.94%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.02%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -1.26%E -0.369%K -0.523%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 20:04
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.45%EV -8.41%E -4.33%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -5.02%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -2.71%E -0.808%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 20:04
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.94%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -5.02%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -8.52%E -2.70%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-11 19:50
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -9.83%E -5.14%K -10.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -5.02%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 19:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.32%EV -17.85%E -10.26%K -24.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.89%EV -5.02%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -8.52%E -2.70%K -3.96%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-11 19:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%EV -7.47%E -3.81%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.49%EV -5.97%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 08:35
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -6.20%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 19:20
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.76%EV -7.94%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -6.20%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 19:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.41%EV -4.16%E -2.05%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -7.39%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 08:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -7.39%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 19:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -7.39%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 08:10
Bet Right🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.45%EV -8.88%E -4.60%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -7.39%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -8.52%E -2.70%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 19:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.56%EV -11.71%E -6.26%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -7.39%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.64%EV -12.87%E -4.29%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-11 19:45
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -8.52%E -2.70%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 08:10
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 19:45
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.94%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 19:45
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -9.83%E -5.14%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-11 17:49
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.97%EV -10.30%E -5.42%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.04%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-11 17:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.97%EV -10.30%E -5.42%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.04%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-11 19:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.94%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-11 19:14
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -12.66%E -6.84%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -10.95%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.55%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-10 20:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.68%EV -7.47%E -3.81%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -12.14%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.59%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 08:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.77%EV -15.02%E -8.34%K -18.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.56%EV -13.33%E -3.65%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.66%EV -12.87%E -4.29%K -6.44%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-11 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.41%EV -10.77%E -5.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.16%EV -13.80%E -3.80%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.43%EV -13.45%E -4.51%K -6.79%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-11 19:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.20%EV -8.41%E -4.33%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-11 08:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.54%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70%1.0%2026-10-11 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.38%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-10-11 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.38%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-10-11 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.38%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-10-11 19:50
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.38%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-10-11 19:50