The School of Odds
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Rosario Central v Independiente

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rosario Central (Local)

Prediction 40.02%2.50fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.23%40.02%40.02%40.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.342.352.4044.05%42.74%42.55%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 29.28%3.42fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.00%29.28%29.28%29.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.183.163.2932.26%31.41%31.70%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.70%3.26fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%30.70%30.70%33.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.572.943.003.0938.91%34.07%33.33%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rosario Central (Local): 40.02%; Independiente (Visit): 29.28%; Draw: 30.70%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.29, with an expected value of -3.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.97%E -3.78%K -5.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-05 04:30
Pinnacle🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.20%EV -5.15%E -2.17%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.96%EV -3.68%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.84%EV -5.14%E -1.66%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 04:25
1xBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.67%EV -5.55%E -2.35%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.63%EV -7.48%E -2.37%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -6.36%E -2.09%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-05 04:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.84%EV -6.35%E -2.71%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -7.77%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -6.36%E -2.09%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 04:20
Everygame🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -7.95%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.77%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -9.43%E -3.20%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-04 05:18
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.23%EV -9.15%E -4.03%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.00%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.77%EV -21.10%E -8.21%K -13.44%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-05 04:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.