The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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River Plate v San Lorenzo

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

River Plate (Local)

Prediction 57.30%1.75fair odd
EV -5.46%
Edge -3.31%
Kelly -8.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.75%57.30%57.30%57.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.641.651.6561.35%60.85%60.61%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Lorenzo (Visit)

Prediction 15.89%6.29fair odd
EV -5.79%
Edge -0.977%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.80%15.89%15.89%16.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.815.885.905.9317.21%17.01%16.95%16.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.81%3.73fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.61%26.81%26.81%27.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.493.453.5628.99%28.68%28.99%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 57.30%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 15.89%; Draw: 26.81%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.56, with an expected value of -4.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.41%EV -5.46%E -3.31%K -8.39%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 15.98%EV -5.79%E -0.977%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.61%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-05 02:50
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.75%EV -5.46%E -3.31%K -8.39%G +0.000%5.81I 17.21%NM 16.12%EV -7.70%E -1.32%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-05 04:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.18%EV -6.60%E -4.05%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -6.27%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 04:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.