The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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River Plate v Racing Club

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 22:15 UTC

Final: River Plate 1–0 Racing Club

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

River Plate (Local)

Prediction 66.07%1.51fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -9.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.91%66.07%66.15%67.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.401.401.4577.52%71.64%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Racing Club (Visit)

Prediction 12.85%7.78fair odd
EV +4.06%
Edge +0.501%
Kelly +0.572%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 8.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.74%12.79%12.80%13.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.607.357.508.1015.15%13.60%13.33%12.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.08%4.74fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.425%
Kelly -0.541%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.47%21.14%21.05%22.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.334.384.6525.64%23.08%22.83%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 66.07%; Racing Club (Visit): 12.85%; Draw: 21.08%. For Racing Club (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.78. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.22%EV -4.19%E -2.89%K -9.32%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.85%EV +4.06%E +0.501%K +0.572%G +0.023%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.92%EV -7.67%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-25 22:11
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.50%E -5.36%K -18.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +2.78%E +0.347%K +0.397%G +0.011%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -5.14%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 22:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.15%EV -6.18%E -4.35%K -14.71%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV +2.78%E +0.347%K +0.397%G +0.011%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -10.41%E -2.45%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 21:47
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.15%EV -6.18%E -4.35%K -14.71%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV +2.78%E +0.347%K +0.397%G +0.011%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -10.41%E -2.45%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 21:46
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.24%EV -7.50%E -5.36%K -18.75%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.07%EV +0.207%E +0.027%K +0.030%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -4.08%E -0.898%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 22:10
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.24%EV -7.50%E -5.36%K -18.75%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.07%EV +0.207%E +0.027%K +0.030%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -4.08%E -0.898%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 22:10
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.79%EV -4.86%E -3.37%K -11.04%G +0.000%7.68I 13.02%NM 12.52%EV -1.33%E -0.174%K -0.200%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.68%EV -1.98%E -0.425%K -0.541%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-25 22:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.48%EV -4.19%E -2.89%K -9.32%G +0.000%7.67I 13.04%NM 12.57%EV -1.46%E -0.191%K -0.219%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.95%EV -3.03%E -0.659%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-25 21:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.48%EV -4.19%E -2.89%K -9.32%G +0.000%7.67I 13.04%NM 12.57%EV -1.46%E -0.191%K -0.219%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.95%EV -3.03%E -0.659%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-25 21:31
BetAnything🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.48%EV -4.19%E -2.89%K -9.32%G +0.000%7.67I 13.04%NM 12.57%EV -1.46%E -0.191%K -0.219%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.95%EV -3.03%E -0.659%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-25 21:27
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.29%EV -5.52%E -3.86%K -12.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -3.65%E -0.486%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -5.14%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 22:11
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -6.18%E -4.35%K -14.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -3.65%E -0.486%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -5.14%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 21:47
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.92%EV -8.16%E -5.87%K -20.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -3.65%E -0.486%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -5.14%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 22:10
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.24%EV -9.48%E -6.92%K -25.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -3.65%E -0.486%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -5.14%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 22:10
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -7.50%E -5.36%K -18.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -3.65%E -0.486%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -11.46%E -2.73%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 22:10
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -7.50%E -5.36%K -18.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -3.65%E -0.486%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -13.57%E -3.31%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 21:46
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -10.14%E -7.46%K -28.17%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -3.65%E -0.486%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -8.72%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 22:11
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.44%EV -10.14%E -7.46%K -28.17%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -3.65%E -0.486%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -11.46%E -2.73%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 22:11
LiveScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.57%EV -9.48%E -6.92%K -25.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -3.65%E -0.486%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -15.68%E -3.92%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-25 21:46
Virgin Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.57%EV -9.48%E -6.92%K -25.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -3.65%E -0.486%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -15.68%E -3.92%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-25 21:47
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.17%EV -7.50%E -5.36%K -18.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.78%EV -6.86%E -0.946%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -7.25%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.49%EV -8.82%E -6.39%K -23.21%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.47%EV -6.86%E -0.946%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -13.57%E -3.31%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 22:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.47%EV -6.18%E -4.35%K -14.71%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.91%EV -7.50%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%EV -9.35%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 21:46
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 66.83%EV -14.77%E -11.45%K -50.92%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.14%EV -8.79%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.03%EV -13.57%E -3.31%K -4.38%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-25 22:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.23%EV -4.86%E -3.37%K -11.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -10.07%E -1.44%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -7.25%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 21:55
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.39%EV -5.52%E -3.86%K -12.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -10.07%E -1.44%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.25%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 22:09
theScore Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.71%EV -6.84%E -4.85%K -16.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -10.07%E -1.44%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -7.25%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 22:10
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -7.50%E -5.36%K -18.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -10.07%E -1.44%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -5.14%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 21:55
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -7.50%E -5.36%K -18.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -10.07%E -1.44%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -11.46%E -2.73%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 21:46
Winamax (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.35%EV -9.48%E -6.92%K -25.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -10.07%E -1.44%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -7.25%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 22:10
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.30%EV -10.14%E -7.46%K -28.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -10.07%E -1.44%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -8.72%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 22:10
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -10.14%E -7.46%K -28.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -10.07%E -1.44%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -11.46%E -2.73%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 22:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.15%EV -11.46%E -8.55%K -33.71%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.47%EV -10.07%E -1.44%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.38%EV -17.79%E -4.56%K -6.13%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-25 21:46
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.91%EV -4.86%E -3.37%K -11.04%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -13.28%E -1.97%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -7.25%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 21:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.89%EV -10.14%E -7.46%K -28.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.27%EV -13.28%E -1.97%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.84%EV -9.35%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 22:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.22%EV -10.14%E -7.46%K -28.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -13.28%E -1.97%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.64%EV -13.57%E -3.31%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.37%EV -11.46%E -8.55%K -33.71%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.27%EV -15.21%E -2.30%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.36%EV -13.57%E -3.31%K -4.38%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-25 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.02%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69%0.7%2026-10-25 22:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.02%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69%0.7%2026-10-25 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.85%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64%1.0%2026-10-25 22:10
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.81%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.71%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.48%1.7%2026-10-25 22:11
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60%2.0%2026-10-25 22:10