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River Plate v Lanus

2026-11-20 19:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

River Plate (Local)

Prediction 57.75%1.73fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -6.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.31%57.75%57.60%58.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.611.631.6665.36%62.11%61.54%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 16.40%6.10fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -0.577%
Kelly -0.695%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.14%16.40%16.48%16.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.655.715.8918.87%17.69%17.51%16.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.85%3.87fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%25.85%25.92%26.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.583.593.7229.41%27.95%27.82%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: River Plate (Local): 57.75%; Lanus (Visit): 16.40%; Draw: 25.85%. For Lanus (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.10. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.89, with an expected value of -3.40%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.31%EV -4.14%E -2.49%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.49%EV -5.37%E -0.930%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.21%EV -6.15%E -1.70%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-09 12:39
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.87%E -3.60%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.89I 16.98%NM 16.14%EV -3.40%E -0.577%K -0.695%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.55%EV -3.83%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-09 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.41%EV -6.45%E -3.98%K -10.40%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.46%EV -7.34%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.13%EV -7.96%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-09 12:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.51%EV -11.65%E -7.61%K -21.98%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.60%EV -13.08%E -2.47%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -12.10%E -3.56%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.6%2026-11-09 12:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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