The School of Odds
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River Plate v Belgrano de Cordoba

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 18:30 UTC

Final: River Plate 2–3 Belgrano de Cordoba

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

River Plate (Local)

Prediction 43.58%2.29fair odd
EV -0.213%
Edge -0.093%
Kelly -0.165%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.93%43.59%43.67%45.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.132.152.2950.25%46.96%46.51%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belgrano de Cordoba (Visit)

Prediction 23.33%4.29fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.394%
Kelly +0.511%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.17%23.25%23.36%24.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.024.004.3627.40%24.85%25.00%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.10%3.02fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.803%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.58%33.16%32.97%34.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.802.802.9538.17%35.69%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 43.58%; Belgrano de Cordoba (Visit): 23.33%; Draw: 33.10%. For Belgrano de Cordoba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.29. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.36, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.96%EV -6.31%E -2.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.17%EV +1.72%E +0.394%K +0.511%G +0.009%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.88%EV -2.70%E -0.918%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-24 18:10
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.98%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -0.850%E -0.200%K -0.261%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.80%EV -4.68%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.98%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -0.850%E -0.200%K -0.261%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.80%EV -4.68%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.31%E -2.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -2.02%E -0.480%K -0.630%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -7.33%E -2.62%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 18:00
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.86%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.02%E -0.480%K -0.630%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.68%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 18:20
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.32%EV -6.31%E -2.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -2.02%E -0.480%K -0.630%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-24 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.29%EV -3.18%E -0.767%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.77%EV -2.37%E -0.803%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-24 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.29%EV -3.18%E -0.767%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.77%EV -2.37%E -0.803%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-24 18:00
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.29%EV -3.18%E -0.767%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.77%EV -2.37%E -0.803%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-24 18:00
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.06%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -4.35%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -7.33%E -2.62%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 18:17
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.36%EV -6.31%E -2.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -4.35%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-24 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.16%EV -11.98%E -5.93%K -11.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -4.35%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -7.33%E -2.62%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-24 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.16%EV -11.98%E -5.93%K -11.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -4.35%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -7.33%E -2.62%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-24 18:20
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.93%EV -0.213%E -0.093%K -0.165%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.65%EV -5.28%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.42%EV -7.66%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-24 18:20
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.07%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -6.68%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.25%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 18:20
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -6.68%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -7.33%E -2.62%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 18:20
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.78%EV -6.31%E -2.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.68%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.68%EV -4.68%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.55%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.68%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-24 18:19
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -6.31%E -2.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.68%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.33%E -2.62%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-24 18:20
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.68%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -7.33%E -2.62%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-24 18:00
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -6.68%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-24 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -12.85%E -6.42%K -12.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -6.68%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-24 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.76%EV -7.19%E -3.37%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.54%EV -7.62%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-24 18:19
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.87%EV -3.26%E -1.47%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -7.85%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.04%EV -4.68%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.87%EV -3.26%E -1.47%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -7.85%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.04%EV -4.68%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.92%EV -11.54%E -5.69%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.69%EV -8.32%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.39%EV -11.64%E -4.36%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-24 18:18
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.31%E -2.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -9.02%E -2.31%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.51%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -9.02%E -2.31%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-24 18:19
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.31%E -2.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -10.18%E -2.64%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -7.33%E -2.62%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-24 18:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -11.35%E -2.99%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-24 18:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.84%EV -12.85%E -6.42%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.07%EV -11.35%E -2.99%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.09%EV -12.30%E -4.64%K -7.45%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-24 18:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.66%EV -13.29%E -6.68%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.17%EV -12.51%E -3.34%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.16%EV -13.29%E -5.07%K -8.20%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-24 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -10.67%E -5.21%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.05%EV -14.85%E -4.07%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.13%EV -12.30%E -4.64%K -7.45%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-24 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.40%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.49%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.12%1.1%2026-05-24 18:20
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.43%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.27%1.3%2026-05-24 18:20
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.06%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.56%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.38%1.9%2026-05-24 18:10