Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Racing Club v Sarmiento de Junin

Início: 2026-09-19 00:15 UTC

Final: Racing Club 3–1 Sarmiento de Junin

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

37 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Racing Club (Local)

Previsão 52.67%1.90odd justa
EV -4.14%
Vantagem -2.27%
Kelly -5.05%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.82

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
51.79%52.88%52.62%55.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.601.741.741.8262.50%57.61%57.47%54.95%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visitante)

Previsão 20.45%4.89odd justa
EV +7.34%
Vantagem +1.40%
Kelly +1.73%
Crescimento +0.127%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.96%20.29%20.48%21.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.104.664.605.2524.39%21.44%21.74%19.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.88%3.72odd justa
EV -3.22%
Vantagem -0.895%
Kelly -1.24%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.80%26.83%26.90%27.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.453.453.6030.77%29.00%28.99%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Racing Club (Local): 52.67%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visitante): 20.45%; Empate: 26.88%. Para Sarmiento de Junin (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.89. 10 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +7.34%.

Odds das casas de apostas (37 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -10.46%E -6.15%K -14.94%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.96%EV +7.34%E +1.40%K +1.73%G +0.127%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -4.56%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 13:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -10.46%E -6.15%K -14.94%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.96%EV +7.34%E +1.40%K +1.73%G +0.127%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -4.56%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 13:05
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.20%EV -12.04%E -7.21%K -17.97%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.08%EV +4.28%E +0.839%K +1.04%G +0.045%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -7.25%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 13:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.64%EV -5.19%E -2.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.31%EV +2.23%E +0.447%K +0.558%G +0.012%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.05%EV -4.03%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-18 14:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.64%EV -5.19%E -2.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.31%EV +2.23%E +0.447%K +0.558%G +0.012%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.05%EV -4.03%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-18 14:00
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.64%EV -5.19%E -2.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.31%EV +2.23%E +0.447%K +0.558%G +0.012%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.05%EV -4.03%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-18 14:04
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.77%EV -6.77%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV +2.23%E +0.447%K +0.558%G +0.012%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 13:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -12.04%E -7.21%K -17.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV +2.23%E +0.447%K +0.558%G +0.012%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -3.22%E -0.895%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 01:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.97%EV -14.15%E -8.68%K -22.46%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.29%EV +0.188%E +0.038%K +0.048%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -9.94%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-18 13:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.97%EV -14.15%E -8.68%K -22.46%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.29%EV +0.188%E +0.038%K +0.048%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -9.94%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-18 13:05
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.05%EV -4.14%E -2.27%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.91%EV -0.834%E -0.172%K -0.217%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.04%EV -4.03%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-18 13:40
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.75%EV -9.41%E -5.47%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.06%EV -0.834%E -0.172%K -0.217%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-18 14:04
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -9.93%E -5.81%K -13.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -1.86%E -0.387%K -0.488%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 13:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.78%EV -15.73%E -9.83%K -26.21%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -1.86%E -0.387%K -0.488%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -12.63%E -3.89%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-18 13:04
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -6.77%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -2.88%E -0.606%K -0.768%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -7.25%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 13:45
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -6.25%E -3.51%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.01%EV -3.08%E -0.650%K -0.824%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.56%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 15:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.21%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.03%EV -4.92%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.76%EV -6.45%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 15:05
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -5.19%E -2.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -5.95%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 13:44
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.90%EV -6.77%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -5.95%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 13:40
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -6.77%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -5.95%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.25%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 13:47
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.95%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 13:40
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -8.88%E -5.13%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -5.95%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-18 13:40
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.20%EV -9.41%E -5.47%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -5.95%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-18 13:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -10.46%E -6.15%K -14.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -5.95%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-18 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -5.19%E -2.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.99%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 13:45
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -6.77%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -7.99%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 13:35
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.39%EV -8.88%E -5.13%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -7.99%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-18 13:44
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.19%E -2.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -3.22%E -0.895%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 14:05
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.19%E -2.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -3.22%E -0.895%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 14:04
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -5.19%E -2.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.25%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 13:45
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -11.47%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 13:39
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.20%EV -10.46%E -6.15%K -14.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -11.47%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.30%EV -12.63%E -3.89%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-18 13:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.93%E -5.81%K -13.99%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -12.08%E -2.81%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.93%EV -10.75%E -3.24%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 13:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.79%EV -12.04%E -7.21%K -17.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.50%EV -12.08%E -2.81%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.71%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-18 13:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.57%EV -12.04%E -7.21%K -17.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.42%EV -12.08%E -2.81%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -12.63%E -3.89%K -5.61%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-18 14:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.32%EV -8.35%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -14.12%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-18 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.94%EV -9.41%E -5.47%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -16.17%E -3.94%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 13:44
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.49%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.11%1.1%2026-09-18 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.49%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.11%1.1%2026-09-18 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.49%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.11%1.1%2026-09-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.49%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.11%1.1%2026-09-18 14:20
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.48%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-09-18 13:55