The School of Odds

Platense v Union Santa Fe

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 00:15 UTC

Final: Platense 2–2 Union Santa Fe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Platense (Local)

Prediction 38.56%2.59fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%38.69%38.59%40.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.402.402.5145%42%42%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Union Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 28.09%3.56fair odd
EV +2.55%
Edge +0.698%
Kelly +0.961%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.48%28.05%28.14%29.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.283.303.6533%30%30%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 33.35%3.00fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.668%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.43%33.26%33.27%34.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.602.792.802.9438%36%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag2.44I 40.98%NM 39.61%EV -5.91%E -2.42%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.48%EV +2.55%E +0.698%K +0.961%G +0.024%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.91%EV -4.97%E -1.74%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-24 23:05
LowVig.ag2.44I 40.98%NM 39.61%EV -5.91%E -2.42%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.48%EV +2.55%E +0.698%K +0.961%G +0.024%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.91%EV -4.97%E -1.74%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-24 23:05
Pinnacle2.51I 39.84%NM 38.58%EV -3.21%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.44%EV -0.825%E -0.234%K -0.326%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.98%EV -4.97%E -1.74%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-25 00:10
1xBet2.44I 40.98%NM 39.32%EV -5.91%E -2.42%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.05%EV -3.92%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.63%EV -1.97%E -0.668%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-25 00:10
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -4.48%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.63%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-25 00:05
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.48%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -8.30%E -3.02%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 00:05
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.48%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.97%E -3.69%K -5.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 00:05
Everygame2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.48%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.97%E -3.69%K -5.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 00:10
Marathon Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.38%EV -6.30%E -2.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.59%EV -5.04%E -1.49%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.03%EV -8.63%E -3.15%K -4.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 00:09
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.44%EV -4.37%E -1.76%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.46%EV -5.88%E -1.76%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.10%EV -3.97%E -1.38%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-25 00:10
Betsson2.48I 40.32%NM 38.44%EV -4.37%E -1.76%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.46%EV -5.88%E -1.76%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.10%EV -3.97%E -1.38%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-25 00:10
Codere (IT)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -5.88%E -1.76%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -4.97%E -1.74%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 00:10
BetAnything2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -7.46%E -3.11%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -5.88%E -1.76%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.63%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 00:10
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.46%E -3.11%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -7.29%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -3.30%E -1.14%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-24 23:55
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.60%E -1.44%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.29%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -8.30%E -3.02%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-24 23:55
Unibet (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.29%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.63%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-25 00:10
theScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.29%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.63%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-25 00:10
Bovada2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -7.46%E -3.11%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.29%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -4.97%E -1.74%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-25 00:09
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -7.46%E -3.11%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.29%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.63%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 00:05
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.46%E -3.11%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.29%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.30%E -3.02%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 00:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -8.23%E -3.46%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -7.29%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.46%EV -12.30%E -4.68%K -7.55%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-25 00:05
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02%NM 38.03%EV -8.23%E -3.46%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -7.29%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.54%EV -12.64%E -4.82%K -7.80%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-25 00:05
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV -6.30%E -2.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -3.30%E -1.14%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-25 00:10
Unibet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV -6.30%E -2.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -3.30%E -1.14%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-25 00:10
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -13.24%E -5.88%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -3.30%E -1.14%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-24 21:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.18%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -10.10%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.59%EV -4.30%E -1.50%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-25 00:10
BetMGM2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -10.10%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.97%E -1.74%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 00:10
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -8.23%E -3.46%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.97%EV -10.10%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.42%EV -13.30%E -5.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-25 00:05
NetBet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.18%EV -13.24%E -5.88%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.55%EV -10.10%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.27%EV -11.64%E -4.39%K -7.05%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-25 00:05
Betclic (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -11.31%E -4.92%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.09%EV -10.66%E -3.35%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.08%EV -9.97%E -3.69%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-25 00:10
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -9.38%E -3.99%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.50%E -3.65%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -6.63%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 00:10
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -9.38%E -3.99%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.50%E -3.65%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -6.63%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 00:10
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -9.38%E -3.99%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.50%E -3.65%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -6.63%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 00:10
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.79%EV -15.17%E -6.89%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -11.50%E -3.65%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.42%EV -9.97%E -3.69%K -5.86%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-25 00:10
betfred_uk2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -7.46%E -3.11%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -12.91%E -4.16%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -3.97%E -1.38%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-25 00:10
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.46%E -3.11%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -12.91%E -4.16%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -4.97%E -1.74%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 00:10
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -9.38%E -3.99%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -12.91%E -4.16%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -6.63%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-25 00:09
LeoVegas (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 38.70%EV -10.16%E -4.36%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -12.91%E -4.16%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.21%EV -6.63%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-25 00:10
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.89%EV -13.24%E -5.88%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.69%EV -14.31%E -4.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.41%EV -9.97%E -3.69%K -5.86%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-25 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.51%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.26%0.6%2026-07-25 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.70%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.16%0.9%2026-07-25 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.70%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.16%0.9%2026-07-25 00:10
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.55%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.03%1.3%2026-07-25 00:10
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 39.79%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.02%3.0%2026-07-25 00:10