The School of Odds
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Platense v Estudiantes

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Platense (Local)

Prediction 34.00%2.94fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.07%33.93%34.00%34.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.732.742.8239.22%36.59%36.56%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes (Visit)

Prediction 31.43%3.18fair odd
EV -1.00%
Edge -0.319%
Kelly -0.467%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.68%31.74%31.43%34.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.852.853.1540.00%35.15%35.09%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.57%2.89fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.30%34.33%34.57%34.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.712.702.8039.22%36.92%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Platense (Local): 34.00%; Estudiantes (Visit): 31.43%; Draw: 34.57%. For Estudiantes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.15, with an expected value of -1.00%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 34.37%EV -4.11%E -1.46%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -1.00%E -0.319%K -0.467%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.86%EV -3.89%E -1.40%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-06 13:50
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -4.79%E -1.71%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -8.86%E -3.06%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 14:21
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.79%E -1.71%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -12.00%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.20%E -1.14%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 13:56
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.79%E -1.71%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -12.00%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.20%E -1.14%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 14:00
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -8.86%E -3.06%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-06 14:50
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -13.58%E -4.94%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-06 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -7.51%E -2.76%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -5.09%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.81%EV -7.35%E -2.74%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 16:05
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.43%EV -7.85%E -2.90%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -5.09%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.68%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 16:05
Everygame🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -4.15%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 14:10
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -15.15%E -5.61%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-06 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.07%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.63%EV -21.43%E -8.57%K -14.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -10.12%E -3.89%K -6.32%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-06 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.33%EV -13.29%E -5.21%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.33%EV -19.86%E -7.79%K -12.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.33%EV -11.85%E -4.65%K -7.64%G +0.000%17.6%2026-03-06 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.