The School of Odds
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Platense v Argentinos Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Final: Platense 1–1 Argentinos Juniors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Platense (Local)

Prediction 34.28%2.92fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.380%
Kelly +0.575%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.18%34.08%34.29%35.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.712.752.9541.67%36.88%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Argentinos Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 32.27%3.10fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -0.950%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.41%32.50%32.29%35.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.852.853.0138.46%35.08%35.09%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.45%2.99fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.798%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.59%33.42%33.42%34.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.762.752.9239.22%36.20%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Platense (Local): 34.28%; Argentinos Juniors (Visit): 32.27%; Draw: 33.45%. For Platense (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV +1.12%E +0.380%K +0.575%G +0.006%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -16.09%E -6.19%K -10.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 19:44
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.68%EV +0.779%E +0.265%K +0.402%G +0.003%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.01%EV -6.09%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.31%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-11 19:54
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.53%EV -2.31%E -0.809%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.53%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.95%EV -3.00%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-11 19:40
Pinnacle🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -2.99%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.68%EV -4.47%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.13%EV -2.33%E -0.798%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-11 19:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -4.02%E -1.44%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 19:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -5.05%E -1.82%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.08%EV -2.86%E -0.950%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.07%EV -2.33%E -0.798%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 19:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -5.05%E -1.82%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.08%EV -2.86%E -0.950%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.07%EV -2.33%E -0.798%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 19:55
BetAnything🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -5.05%E -1.82%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.08%EV -2.86%E -0.950%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.07%EV -2.33%E -0.798%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 19:54
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -4.67%E -1.64%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 19:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 19:49
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 19:54
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.23%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.86%EV -7.01%E -2.52%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 19:54
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.23%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.86%EV -7.01%E -2.52%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 19:55
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 19:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 19:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.01%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.40%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.59%EV -4.00%E -1.39%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 19:40
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 19:44
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -7.05%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 19:50
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 19:45
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 19:54
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 19:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -5.73%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -12.86%E -4.76%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-11 19:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.09%EV -6.42%E -2.35%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -7.05%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.60%EV -7.35%E -2.65%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 19:54
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -7.45%E -2.76%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 19:55
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -7.45%E -2.76%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 19:54
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -7.45%E -2.76%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 19:50
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -7.45%E -2.76%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -9.16%E -3.46%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.11%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-11 19:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -9.85%E -3.74%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-11 19:54
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.92%EV -9.85%E -3.74%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.04%EV -12.86%E -4.76%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.04%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 19:44
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.41%EV -10.19%E -3.89%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-11 19:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -10.88%E -4.18%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.51%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-11 19:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.73%EV -10.88%E -4.18%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.89%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.39%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-11 19:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.63%EV -11.90%E -4.63%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.79%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.58%EV -11.36%E -4.29%K -6.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-11 19:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.72%EV -12.59%E -4.94%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.62%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.66%EV -12.03%E -4.57%K -7.38%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-11 19:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.72%EV -12.59%E -4.94%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.62%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.66%EV -12.03%E -4.57%K -7.38%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-11 19:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 34.74%EV -13.62%E -5.40%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.84%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.42%EV -12.36%E -4.72%K -7.63%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-11 19:48
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.99%EV -17.73%E -7.39%K -12.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.60%EV -11.36%E -4.29%K -6.89%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-11 19:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.21%0.4%2026-10-11 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.05%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%0.6%2026-10-11 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.28%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%0.6%2026-10-11 19:55
Smarkets◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.95%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.95%1.1%2026-10-11 19:55
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.0%2026-10-11 19:55