The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Newells Old Boys v Velez Sarsfield BA

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Prediction 35.41%2.82fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.96%35.36%35.36%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.552.602.7041.67%39.27%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)

Prediction 33.21%3.01fair odd
EV -5.02%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.52%33.32%33.21%34.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.722.732.8638.46%36.73%36.70%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.38%3.19fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.47%31.32%31.42%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.923.0537.04%34.37%34.19%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newells Old Boys (Local): 35.41%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit): 33.21%; Draw: 31.38%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -4.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.19%EV -5.02%E -1.75%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 22:10
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.17%E -2.33%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.35%E -1.88%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 12:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -6.17%E -2.33%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.19%EV -6.68%E -2.38%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -7.42%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 22:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -6.17%E -2.33%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.01%E -2.50%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 16:35
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.01%E -2.50%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -4.29%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 21:45
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -7.01%E -2.50%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-31 21:43
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.74%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.67%E -3.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.29%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 16:50
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 21:39
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-31 21:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.69%EV -13.25%E -5.41%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.63%EV -13.65%E -5.25%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.68%EV -10.56%E -3.71%K -5.71%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-29 16:35
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.49%EV -13.25%E -5.41%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.45%EV -13.65%E -5.25%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.06%EV -12.13%E -4.33%K -6.74%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-29 16:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.97%EV -15.02%E -6.26%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.20%EV -13.65%E -5.25%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.83%EV -12.13%E -4.33%K -6.74%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-29 16:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.91%EV -15.02%E -6.26%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.52%EV -11.99%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 31.57%EV -14.33%E -5.25%K -8.28%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-29 20:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.56%EV -15.02%E -6.26%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.83%EV -13.65%E -5.25%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.61%EV -15.27%E -5.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%17.2%2026-08-29 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-08-29 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-08-29 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-29 17:10