The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Newells Old Boys v Union Santa Fe

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 21:30 UTC

Final: Newells Old Boys 1–1 Union Santa Fe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Prediction 44.51%2.25fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.37%44.57%44.56%46.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.072.102.1753.19%48.36%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 25.88%3.86fair odd
EV +0.948%
Edge +0.243%
Kelly +0.327%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.99%25.83%25.89%27.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.593.553.9031.75%27.89%28.17%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.60%3.38fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.83%29.60%29.55%30.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.133.153.2633.90%31.93%31.75%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newells Old Boys (Local): 44.51%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 25.88%; Draw: 29.60%. For Union Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.948%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.93%EV -6.97%E -3.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.62%EV +0.948%E +0.243%K +0.327%G +0.003%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.45%EV -3.50%E -1.07%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-01 21:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -10.97%E -5.49%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV +0.948%E +0.243%K +0.327%G +0.003%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 21:15
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -10.97%E -5.49%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV +0.948%E +0.243%K +0.327%G +0.003%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 21:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.95%EV -4.30%E -2.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.04%EV -0.088%E -0.023%K -0.031%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.01%EV -4.68%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.95%EV -4.30%E -2.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.04%EV -0.088%E -0.023%K -0.031%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.01%EV -4.68%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 18:50
BetAnything🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.95%EV -4.30%E -2.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.04%EV -0.088%E -0.023%K -0.031%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.01%EV -4.68%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 18:45
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.69%EV -3.41%E -1.57%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.38%EV -1.12%E -0.294%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.93%EV -4.09%E -1.26%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 21:15
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -6.52%E -3.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -1.64%E -0.432%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 20:55
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -8.75%E -4.27%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -1.64%E -0.432%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.23%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 21:14
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.77%EV -12.75%E -6.51%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -1.64%E -0.432%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 21:15
SportsBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.27%EV -7.86%E -3.80%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -2.93%E -0.783%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 21:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.42%EV -14.09%E -7.30%K -15.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -4.23%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -9.71%E -3.18%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-11-01 21:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.42%EV -14.09%E -7.30%K -15.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -4.23%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -9.71%E -3.18%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-11-01 21:15
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.02%EV -4.30%E -2.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -5.52%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.93%EV -7.86%E -3.80%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.55%EV -5.78%E -1.59%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 17:40
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.52%E -3.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.82%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 20:45
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -10.97%E -5.49%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -6.82%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 21:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -10.97%E -5.49%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -6.82%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 21:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.54%EV -16.31%E -8.68%K -18.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -6.82%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%14.3%2026-11-01 21:15
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -4.30%E -2.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -8.11%E -2.28%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 21:15
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -4.30%E -2.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -8.11%E -2.28%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 21:15
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -6.52%E -3.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -8.11%E -2.28%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 21:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.51%EV -3.41%E -1.57%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 19:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.30%E -2.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 17:40
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.52%E -3.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 17:39
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.75%E -4.27%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.23%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-01 19:20
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.97%E -5.49%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 21:25
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -4.30%E -2.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -10.70%E -3.10%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -4.30%E -2.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -10.70%E -3.10%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 17:40
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -4.30%E -2.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -10.70%E -3.10%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 19:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 44.64%EV -11.42%E -5.74%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.75%EV -10.70%E -3.10%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.61%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-01 20:55
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -5.63%E -2.66%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 21:25
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.52%E -3.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 20:55
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.52%E -3.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.23%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.75%E -4.27%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.23%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-01 20:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.42%EV -6.52%E -3.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -14.58%E -4.42%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-01 19:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.52%EV -10.08%E -4.99%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 26.88%EV -15.36%E -4.70%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.60%EV -12.08%E -4.07%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.8%2026-11-01 21:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 45.00%EV -15.87%E -8.40%K -17.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.17%EV -15.88%E -4.89%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.83%EV -12.67%E -4.30%K -6.50%G +0.000%17.6%2026-11-01 21:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.45%EV -10.97%E -5.49%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.59%EV -18.47%E -5.86%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.97%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%15.1%2026-11-01 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-11-01 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-11-01 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-11-01 21:25
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-11-01 21:25
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.70%1.1%2026-11-01 21:00

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