The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lanus v Velez Sarsfield BA

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

Final: Lanus 2–0 Velez Sarsfield BA

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lanus (Local)

Prediction 49.40%2.02fair odd
EV -0.216%
Edge -0.107%
Kelly -0.212%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.12%49.30%49.45%51.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.891.882.0258.82%53.02%53.19%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)

Prediction 21.89%4.57fair odd
EV +5.49%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.44%
Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 4.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.92%21.92%21.76%23.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.224.204.8227.03%23.71%23.81%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.72%3.48fair odd
EV -0.933%
Edge -0.270%
Kelly -0.381%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.86%28.79%28.79%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.193.203.4534.48%31.37%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lanus (Local): 49.40%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit): 21.89%; Draw: 28.72%. For Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.57. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.82, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.50%EV -4.17%E -2.15%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.92%EV +5.49%E +1.14%K +1.44%G +0.079%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.58%EV -9.83%E -3.13%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-12 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.37%EV -7.13%E -3.79%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.64%EV +2.43%E +0.519%K +0.661%G +0.016%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.99%EV -0.933%E -0.270%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-12 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.37%EV -7.13%E -3.79%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.64%EV +2.43%E +0.519%K +0.661%G +0.016%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.99%EV -0.933%E -0.270%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-12 18:49
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.37%EV -7.13%E -3.79%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.64%EV +2.43%E +0.519%K +0.661%G +0.016%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.99%EV -0.933%E -0.270%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-12 18:49
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -9.60%E -5.25%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV +0.680%E +0.148%K +0.189%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-12 18:44
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.63%E -4.08%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -1.51%E -0.335%K -0.431%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-12 18:44
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -3.18%E -1.62%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.78%EV -2.82%E -0.636%K -0.820%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.80%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-12 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.81%EV -6.14%E -3.23%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -3.70%E -0.840%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.24%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-12 18:54
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.11%EV -5.16%E -2.69%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.70%E -0.840%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-12 18:43
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.11%EV -5.16%E -2.69%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.70%E -0.840%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-12 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.13%E -3.79%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.49%EV -4.79%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.68%E -2.05%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-12 18:49
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.90%EV -7.13%E -3.79%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -5.23%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.24%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-12 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -11.08%E -6.16%K -13.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -5.23%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-12 18:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -11.08%E -6.16%K -13.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -5.23%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-12 18:50
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -5.65%E -2.96%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -5.89%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -3.80%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-12 18:45
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -7.13%E -3.79%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -5.89%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.68%E -2.05%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-12 18:48
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.16%EV -7.13%E -3.79%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -5.89%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -9.55%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 18:54
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.40%EV -7.63%E -4.08%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -6.98%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-12 18:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -3.67%E -1.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -8.07%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.24%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 18:34
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -11.08%E -6.16%K -13.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -8.07%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.93%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-12 18:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.17%EV -4.66%E -2.42%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.40%EV -9.17%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.42%EV -9.26%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-12 18:34
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.44%EV -4.66%E -2.42%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -10.26%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.68%E -2.05%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-12 18:34
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -5.65%E -2.96%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -10.26%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.24%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-12 18:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.63%EV -9.11%E -4.95%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -10.26%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -6.68%E -2.05%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-12 18:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.63%EV -9.60%E -5.25%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -10.26%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.93%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-12 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.66%EV -12.57%E -7.10%K -16.32%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.70%EV -11.36%E -2.80%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 28.63%EV -11.84%E -3.86%K -5.72%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-12 18:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.81%EV -16.02%E -9.43%K -22.89%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.33%EV -11.36%E -2.80%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.86%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-12 18:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.37%EV -0.216%E -0.107%K -0.212%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-12 18:49
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.37%EV -0.216%E -0.107%K -0.212%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-12 18:49
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -6.14%E -3.23%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-12 18:39
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -6.14%E -3.23%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-12 18:45
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -7.63%E -4.08%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -6.68%E -2.05%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 18:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -11.08%E -6.16%K -13.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-12 18:49
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -2.69%E -1.36%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -14.64%E -3.75%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.03%EV -12.42%E -4.07%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 18:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.10%EV -7.13%E -3.79%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -14.64%E -3.75%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -9.55%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 18:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.12%EV -4.17%E -2.15%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -16.83%E -4.43%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -15.29%E -5.18%K -7.84%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-12 18:48
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.12%EV -4.17%E -2.15%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -16.83%E -4.43%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -15.29%E -5.18%K -7.84%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-12 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.24%EV -6.64%E -3.51%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.62%EV -19.02%E -5.14%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.14%EV -16.73%E -5.77%K -8.80%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-12 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-10-12 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.60%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-12 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.60%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-12 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.60%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-12 18:55
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.99%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.58%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-10-12 18:50