The School of Odds
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Lanus v Platense

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lanus (Local)

Prediction 43.73%2.29fair odd
EV -5.55%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -4.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.04%43.73%43.79%45.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.062.102.1654.05%48.63%47.62%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Platense (Visit)

Prediction 24.40%4.10fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.805%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.34%24.47%24.42%25.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.713.754.0028.99%26.99%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.88%3.14fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -0.910%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.73%31.80%31.79%32.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.822.803.0537.74%35.41%35.71%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lanus (Local): 43.73%; Platense (Visit): 24.40%; Draw: 31.88%. For Platense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -2.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.35%EV -5.55%E -2.57%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.58%EV -7.05%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.07%EV -6.92%E -2.37%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-26 23:35
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.99%E -2.78%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.30%E -1.92%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -4.37%E -1.46%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-23 00:10
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.99%E -2.78%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -10.95%E -3.00%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -2.78%E -0.910%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-26 03:24
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.99%E -2.78%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -10.95%E -3.00%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -2.78%E -0.910%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-26 03:25
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -5.99%E -2.78%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -7.30%E -1.92%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.96%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-27 19:16
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.59%EV -6.42%E -3.00%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.68%EV -3.88%E -0.985%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -9.15%E -3.21%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 23:14
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.68%EV -8.17%E -3.89%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.20%E -2.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-27 10:19
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.17%E -3.89%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.30%E -1.92%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.75%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-01 23:15
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.17%E -3.89%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -12.34%E -4.49%K -7.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 23:15
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.17%E -3.89%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -12.34%E -4.49%K -7.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 23:10
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -10.36%E -5.05%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -2.42%E -0.604%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -4.37%E -1.46%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-27 11:29
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.28%EV -10.36%E -5.05%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.52%EV -8.20%E -2.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-23 08:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -12.55%E -6.27%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.59%EV -13.39%E -3.77%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.75%EV -12.34%E -4.49%K -7.05%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-16 00:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.55%EV -12.55%E -6.27%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.19%EV -12.17%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -13.93%E -5.16%K -8.20%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-27 11:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.03%EV -14.29%E -7.29%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.64%EV -10.95%E -3.00%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.32%EV -14.89%E -5.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-22 17:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 43.78%EV -14.29%E -7.29%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.84%EV -12.17%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.38%EV -15.53%E -5.86%K -9.41%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-22 15:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 43.78%EV -14.29%E -7.29%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.84%EV -12.17%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.38%EV -15.53%E -5.86%K -9.41%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-26 08:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 43.58%EV -15.17%E -7.82%K -16.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.51%EV -15.83%E -4.59%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.91%EV -15.53%E -5.86%K -9.41%G +0.000%18.3%2026-03-16 00:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 45.17%EV -19.10%E -10.33%K -22.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -14.61%E -4.18%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.95%EV -13.93%E -5.16%K -8.20%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-27 11:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 44.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 11.55%1.04I 96.15%NM 44.44%116.4%2026-04-01 00:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 44.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 11.55%1.04I 96.15%NM 44.44%116.4%2026-04-01 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 44.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 11.55%1.04I 96.15%NM 44.44%116.4%2026-04-01 00:05
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 37.29%1.15I 86.96%NM 33.40%1.31I 76.34%NM 29.32%160.4%2026-03-26 12:00