The School of Odds
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Lanus v Newells Old Boys

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lanus (Local)

Prediction 55.97%1.79fair odd
EV -5.97%
Edge -3.55%
Kelly -8.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.97%55.97%55.97%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.651.6862.50%60.73%60.61%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newells Old Boys (Visit)

Prediction 17.91%5.58fair odd
EV -5.07%
Edge -0.957%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.84%17.91%17.91%17.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.175.175.3020.00%19.32%19.32%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.12%3.83fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.90%26.12%26.12%26.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.563.553.6528.99%28.10%28.17%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lanus (Local): 55.97%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 17.91%; Draw: 26.12%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.65, with an expected value of -4.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.27%EV -5.97%E -3.55%K -8.78%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV -5.07%E -0.957%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -4.66%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 20:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.27%EV -5.97%E -3.55%K -8.78%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV -5.07%E -0.957%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -4.66%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 20:00
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.97%EV -5.97%E -3.55%K -8.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -5.97%E -1.14%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -9.33%E -5.76%K -15.05%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -8.66%E -1.70%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-15 20:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -9.33%E -5.76%K -15.05%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -8.66%E -1.70%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-15 20:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.06%EV -10.45%E -6.53%K -17.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -10.45%E -2.09%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.