The School of Odds

Lanus v Instituto de Córdoba

2026-08-03 00:30 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

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Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Lanus (Local)

Prediction 41.67%2.40fair odd
EV -4.98%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -3.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.69%41.67%41.62%42.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.222.2849%46%45%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Instituto de Córdoba (Visit)

Prediction 25.71%3.89fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -0.952%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.73%25.71%26.01%26.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.503.503.7531%29%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 32.61%3.07fair odd
EV -5.43%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -2.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.14%32.61%32.37%33.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.652.802.802.9038%36%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.67%EV -4.98%E -2.18%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.57%E -0.952%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.99%EV -6.08%E -2.11%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 00:05
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.43%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -5.43%E -1.87%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 00:10
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.43%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -5.43%E -1.87%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 00:10
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.00%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -8.69%E -3.10%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-25 00:05
Codere (IT)2.24I 44.64%NM 41.22%EV -6.65%E -2.97%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -10.00%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.40%EV -7.06%E -2.48%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 00:20
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -3.57%E -0.952%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -8.69%E -3.10%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-25 00:05
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -10.00%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -8.69%E -3.10%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-25 00:10
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.69%EV -10.40%E -4.84%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.40%EV -11.95%E -4.43%K -7.03%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-25 00:10
Betclic (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 41.61%EV -13.73%E -6.63%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.26%EV -15.66%E -4.77%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 32.14%EV -12.60%E -4.70%K -7.50%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-25 00:20
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 41.59%EV -14.57%E -7.11%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.23%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.17%EV -13.58%E -5.12%K -8.23%G +0.000%17.3%2026-07-25 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 40.89%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.83%2.66I 37.59%NM 32.28%16.5%2026-07-25 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-25 01:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-25 01:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-25 01:05