The School of Odds
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Lanus v Deportivo Riestra

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lanus (Local)

Prediction 50.82%1.97fair odd
EV -5.47%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -6.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.79%50.82%50.82%50.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.821.821.8656.50%55.00%54.95%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 19.79%5.05fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.58%19.79%19.79%19.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.694.674.8021.74%21.31%21.39%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.38%3.40fair odd
EV -5.98%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.36%29.38%29.38%29.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.143.153.2032.79%31.83%31.75%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lanus (Local): 50.82%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 19.79%; Draw: 29.38%. For Deportivo Riestra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.80, with an expected value of -4.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -5.47%E -2.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.68%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 10:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.98%E -3.23%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 10:24
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -5.98%E -3.23%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.79%EV -5.98%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 10:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.85%EV -9.03%E -5.04%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -8.95%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -8.91%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 10:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.85%EV -9.03%E -5.04%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -8.95%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -8.91%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 10:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.89%EV -10.04%E -5.67%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -8.95%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -10.38%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 10:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.