The School of Odds
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Lanus v Deportivo Riestra

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lanus (Local)

Prediction 46.61%2.15fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -4.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.63%46.61%47.05%47.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.961.952.0556.18%51.15%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 22.37%4.47fair odd
EV -6.05%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.29%22.37%22.38%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.044.104.2027.03%24.76%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.02%3.22fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.26%31.02%30.58%32.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.973.003.1036.36%33.62%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lanus (Local): 46.61%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 22.37%; Draw: 31.02%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -3.85%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.06%EV -9.43%E -3.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-25 22:45
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.06%EV -9.43%E -3.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-25 22:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 11:25
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 11:25
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 11:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.15%EV -8.64%E -4.41%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -8.28%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.30%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 11:25
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -9.10%E -4.67%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -8.28%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.58%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-02 14:05
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -9.10%E -4.67%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -8.28%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.58%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-02 14:02
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -9.10%E -4.67%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 20:01
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.04%EV -10.03%E -5.20%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 11:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.04%EV -10.03%E -5.20%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 11:25
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.27%EV -10.97%E -5.74%K -12.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -15.00%E -3.95%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.47%EV -10.05%E -3.47%K -5.29%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-05 20:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.63%EV -10.97%E -5.74%K -12.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -16.11%E -4.30%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.13%EV -13.16%E -4.70%K -7.31%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-05 20:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 46.98%EV -17.03%E -9.57%K -21.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.60%EV -17.23%E -4.66%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.41%EV -14.71%E -5.35%K -8.40%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-02 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-03-03 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-03-03 20:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-03-03 20:10