The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Instituto de Córdoba v Gimnasia Mendoza

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 00:30 UTC

Final: Instituto de Córdoba 1–0 Gimnasia Mendoza

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Instituto de Córdoba (Local)

Prediction 59.93%1.67fair odd
EV -0.521%
Edge -0.314%
Kelly -0.789%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.73%60.12%59.73%62.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.541.541.6668.97%64.94%64.94%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit)

Prediction 14.54%6.88fair odd
EV +15.57%
Edge +1.96%
Kelly +2.24%
Growth +0.349%

assuming max odds 7.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.11%14.39%14.67%16.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.406.257.9518.18%15.63%16.00%12.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.54%3.92fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.372%
Kelly -0.502%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.67%25.49%25.59%28.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.623.633.8630.30%27.60%27.59%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Instituto de Córdoba (Local): 59.93%; Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit): 14.54%; Draw: 25.54%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.88. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.13%EV -7.11%E -4.59%K -12.93%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 12.11%EV +15.57%E +1.96%K +2.24%G +0.349%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.75%EV -4.50%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-09 00:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.69%EV -7.71%E -5.01%K -14.28%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 12.30%EV +14.12%E +1.80%K +2.06%G +0.291%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.01%EV -1.43%E -0.372%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-09 00:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.69%EV -7.71%E -5.01%K -14.28%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 12.30%EV +14.12%E +1.80%K +2.06%G +0.291%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.01%EV -1.43%E -0.372%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-09 00:10
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.53%EV -7.71%E -5.01%K -14.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV +1.76%E +0.252%K +0.294%G +0.005%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -2.97%E -0.781%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 00:04
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.63%EV -8.91%E -5.86%K -17.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV +1.76%E +0.252%K +0.294%G +0.005%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -4.24%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 00:09
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.84%EV -8.31%E -5.43%K -15.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +1.76%E +0.252%K +0.294%G +0.005%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -8.07%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 00:15
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.06%EV -11.31%E -7.64%K -23.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV +1.76%E +0.252%K +0.294%G +0.005%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -5.52%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 00:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -7.11%E -4.59%K -12.93%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.24%EV -4.78%E -0.730%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -6.80%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 00:24
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.61%EV -5.91%E -3.77%K -10.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.07%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 00:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.97%EV -6.51%E -4.18%K -11.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -6.80%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 00:20
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.97%EV -6.51%E -4.18%K -11.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -6.80%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 00:20
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -10.11%E -6.74%K -20.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.07%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 00:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.18%EV -11.91%E -8.10%K -25.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -5.51%E -0.847%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -8.07%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 00:15
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.12%E -2.57%K -6.86%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.86%EV -6.96%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.52%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 00:25
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.12%E -2.57%K -6.86%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.86%EV -6.96%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.52%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 00:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.49%EV -13.11%E -9.04%K -29.12%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.71%EV -6.96%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -13.18%E -3.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-09 00:25
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.04%EV -6.51%E -4.18%K -11.63%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV -9.14%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -4.24%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 00:24
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.36%EV -7.11%E -4.59%K -12.93%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%EV -9.14%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -9.35%E -2.63%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 00:05
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.93%EV -10.11%E -6.74%K -20.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -9.14%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -10.63%E -3.04%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 00:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.66%EV -5.31%E -3.36%K -9.16%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.20%EV -9.87%E -1.59%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.24%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 00:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.82%EV -8.91%E -5.86%K -17.14%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.66%EV -11.32%E -1.86%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.53%EV -13.95%E -4.14%K -5.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 00:13
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.01%EV -4.72%E -2.97%K -7.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -12.77%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.52%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 00:25
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.71%EV -5.91%E -3.77%K -10.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -12.77%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -2.97%E -0.781%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 00:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.16%EV -5.31%E -3.36%K -9.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.77%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -5.52%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 00:25
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -5.91%E -3.77%K -10.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.77%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.63%E -3.04%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 19:04
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -7.11%E -4.59%K -12.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.77%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.07%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 00:15
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.31%E -5.43%K -15.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.77%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -8.07%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 00:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.52%EV -10.71%E -7.19%K -21.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.78%EV -12.77%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.70%EV -11.90%E -3.45%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 00:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.52%EV -10.71%E -7.19%K -21.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.78%EV -12.77%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.70%EV -11.90%E -3.45%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.45%EV -11.31%E -7.64%K -23.56%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -12.77%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -13.18%E -3.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-09 00:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.29%EV -8.91%E -5.86%K -17.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.67%EV -16.41%E -2.85%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -8.07%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 00:15
BetAnything🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -0.521%E -0.314%K -0.789%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.23%EV -17.14%E -3.01%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -15.73%E -4.77%K -6.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-07 14:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.30%EV -7.71%E -5.01%K -14.28%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.02%EV -17.14%E -3.01%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -5.52%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 00:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.87%EV -8.91%E -5.86%K -17.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.27%EV -20.04%E -3.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -8.07%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.45%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-08-09 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.45%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-08-09 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.45%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-08-09 00:25
Smarkets◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.25%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-08-09 00:25

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