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Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
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Independiente Rivadavia v Gimnasia La Plata

Início: 2026-10-03 00:30 UTC

Final: Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Gimnasia La Plata

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Previsão 44.19%2.26odd justa
EV -2.78%
Vantagem -1.26%
Kelly -2.32%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.27%44.21%44.29%45.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.082.102.2051.28%48.00%47.62%45.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante)

Previsão 26.03%3.84odd justa
EV +5.14%
Vantagem +1.27%
Kelly +1.69%
Crescimento +0.087%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.04

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.76%26.03%25.81%27.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.593.584.0430.30%27.87%27.97%24.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.78%3.36odd justa
EV -3.20%
Vantagem -0.985%
Kelly -1.42%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.62%29.76%29.89%30.83%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.853.093.103.2535.09%32.34%32.26%30.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 44.19%; Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante): 26.03%; Empate: 29.78%. Para Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.84. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.04, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.14%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -6.76%E -3.20%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.76%EV +5.14%E +1.27%K +1.69%G +0.087%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.76%EV -7.07%E -2.27%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-03 00:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.14%EV -5.43%E -2.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV +1.50%E +0.384%K +0.517%G +0.008%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.09%EV -4.39%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-03 00:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.14%EV -5.43%E -2.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV +1.50%E +0.384%K +0.517%G +0.008%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.09%EV -4.39%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-03 00:14
BetAnything🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.14%EV -5.43%E -2.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV +1.50%E +0.384%K +0.517%G +0.008%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.09%EV -4.39%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-03 00:14
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.08%EV -8.08%E -3.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -1.10%E -0.291%K -0.394%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 00:20
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -1.10%E -0.291%K -0.394%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-03 00:20
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.41%EV -3.66%E -1.68%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.61%EV -1.63%E -0.430%K -0.585%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV -3.80%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-03 00:15
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -2.41%E -0.642%K -0.875%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-03 00:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -2.41%E -0.642%K -0.875%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-03 00:14
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -6.31%E -2.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -3.71%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 00:20
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -6.31%E -2.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -3.71%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 00:25
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.57%EV -8.97%E -4.35%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -3.71%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-03 00:10
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -11.62%E -5.81%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -3.71%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 00:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -11.62%E -5.81%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -3.71%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 00:20
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -5.01%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 00:20
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -5.01%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 00:20
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 00:24
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -3.20%E -0.985%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 00:20
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-03 00:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.37%EV -10.73%E -5.31%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.25%EV -7.61%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -12.14%E -4.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 00:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.37%EV -10.73%E -5.31%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.25%EV -7.61%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -12.14%E -4.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 00:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 00:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 00:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 00:25
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 00:24
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 00:19
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-03 00:19
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -13.63%E -4.70%K -7.17%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 00:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.49%EV -13.39%E -6.83%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.91%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.60%EV -15.12%E -5.30%K -8.17%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-03 00:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -11.51%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.39%EV -8.86%E -2.90%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 23:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.99%EV -11.62%E -5.81%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -11.51%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.13%EV -13.03%E -4.46%K -6.79%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-03 00:25
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.60%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -12.82%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-03 00:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.19%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -12.82%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.76%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 00:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.23%EV -12.50%E -6.31%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.38%EV -13.60%E -4.10%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.39%EV -11.24%E -3.77%K -5.68%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-03 00:25
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-03 00:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-03 00:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -11.62%E -5.81%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-03 00:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.62%EV -13.83%E -7.09%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.01%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-03 00:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%0.1%2026-10-03 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%0.1%2026-10-03 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.61%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13%0.6%2026-10-03 00:25
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.33%1.5%2026-10-03 00:20
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.44%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-10-03 00:20