The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Independiente Rivadavia v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Prediction 58.31%1.71fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -3.04%
Kelly -7.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.28%58.31%58.33%58.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.601.6366.67%63.34%62.70%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Visit)

Prediction 15.41%6.49fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.317%
Kelly -0.376%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.92%15.38%15.43%17.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.816.006.3620.00%17.21%16.67%15.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.28%3.80fair odd
EV -5.38%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.58%26.31%26.25%26.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.493.503.6030.77%28.65%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 58.31%; Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Visit): 15.41%; Draw: 26.28%. For Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.36, with an expected value of -2.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.25%EV -4.95%E -3.04%K -7.86%G +0.000%6.36I 15.72%NM 14.93%EV -2.02%E -0.317%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.82%EV -6.96%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 14:44
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.54%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.56%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 06:22
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -5.54%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.56%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -8.01%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 20:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.12%E -3.80%K -10.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -7.56%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 20:05
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.86%EV -6.12%E -3.80%K -10.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -7.56%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.01%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-01 20:03
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.70%E -4.19%K -11.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.56%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-30 20:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.28%EV -6.70%E -4.19%K -11.17%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -3.71%E -0.594%K -0.707%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -8.53%E -2.45%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 14:39
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -6.70%E -4.19%K -11.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.27%E -2.78%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.01%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-30 20:50
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -7.29%E -4.58%K -12.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -7.56%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 20:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -7.87%E -4.98%K -13.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -7.56%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -6.69%E -1.89%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-30 20:50
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -8.45%E -5.38%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -7.56%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.01%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-30 20:49
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -8.45%E -5.38%K -14.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -15.27%E -2.78%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -8.01%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-30 20:50
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.28%EV -10.78%E -7.05%K -20.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.22%EV -22.97%E -4.59%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.50%EV -14.58%E -4.49%K -6.48%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-30 20:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.07%EV -11.37%E -7.48%K -21.86%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.35%EV -16.81%E -3.11%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.58%EV -9.32%E -2.70%K -3.81%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-30 20:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.27%EV -11.95%E -7.91%K -23.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.30%EV -11.41%E -1.99%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.42%EV -12.48%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-01 20:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.60%EV -12.53%E -8.36%K -25.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.61%EV -19.89%E -3.82%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.79%EV -11.95%E -3.57%K -5.09%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-30 20:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 57.26%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.90%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.84%16.4%2026-08-01 20:10

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