The School of Odds
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Independiente Rivadavia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Prediction 63.70%1.57fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -2.96%
Kelly -8.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.55%63.70%63.42%64.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.431.441.5073.53%69.89%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit)

Prediction 11.91%8.40fair odd
EV +0.027%
Edge +0.003%
Kelly +0.004%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.02%11.91%12.04%14.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.337.508.4016.67%13.64%13.33%11.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.39%4.10fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.612%
Kelly -0.815%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.61%24.39%24.54%25.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.693.754.0029.41%27.10%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 63.70%; Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit): 11.91%; Draw: 24.39%. For Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.398. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.400, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.027%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.29%EV -8.27%E -5.74%K -18.79%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.02%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -8.54%E -2.28%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 17:05
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.39%EV -4.44%E -2.96%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.04%EV -5.93%E -0.750%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.57%EV -5.62%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 22:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.02%EV -5.72%E -3.86%K -11.91%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.11%EV -8.31%E -1.08%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -8.54%E -2.28%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 22:10
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -5.72%E -3.86%K -11.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -10.69%E -1.43%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.45%E -0.612%K -0.815%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 17:05
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -5.72%E -3.86%K -11.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -10.69%E -1.43%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.45%E -0.612%K -0.815%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 17:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.33%EV -13.36%E -9.83%K -37.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.48%EV -10.69%E -1.43%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.18%EV -16.59%E -4.85%K -6.86%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-29 20:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.14%EV -13.36%E -9.83%K -37.12%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.60%EV -11.88%E -1.61%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.26%EV -17.08%E -5.02%K -7.12%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-29 20:04
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.27%E -5.74%K -18.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -16.64%E -2.38%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -7.32%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 17:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.10%EV -11.45%E -8.24%K -29.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.53%EV -16.64%E -2.38%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -12.20%E -3.39%K -4.69%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-29 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 62.72%EV -12.73%E -9.29%K -34.40%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.73%EV -19.62%E -2.91%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -14.64%E -4.18%K -5.86%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-29 17:05
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.55%EV -8.27%E -5.74%K -18.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.53%EV -28.55%E -4.76%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.91%EV -14.64%E -4.18%K -5.86%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-29 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.