The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Gimnasia Mendoza v Velez Sarsfield BA

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.48%26.91%26.51%29.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.363.383.6032.26%29.78%29.59%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)

Prediction 41.35%2.42fair odd
EV +6.68%
Edge +2.59%
Kelly +4.23%
Growth +0.282%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.40%40.75%41.38%42.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.222.202.5850.00%45.09%45.45%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.12%3.11fair odd
EV -5.24%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.50%32.34%32.12%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.802.802.9538.46%35.70%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 26.53%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit): 41.35%; Draw: 32.12%. For Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -16.43%E -5.21%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.40%EV +6.68%E +2.59%K +4.23%G +0.282%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.78%EV -10.70%E -3.85%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-27 20:29
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -16.43%E -5.21%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.40%EV +6.68%E +2.59%K +4.23%G +0.282%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.78%EV -10.70%E -3.85%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-27 20:30
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.90%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-23 03:19
Marathon Bet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 26.35%EV -6.08%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.27%EV -6.56%E -2.90%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.38%EV -7.49%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-27 20:50
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.24%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-26 20:03
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-26 20:02
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 15:30
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -9.04%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -7.49%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-25 06:10
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.04%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.06%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 15:30
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -7.49%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-23 08:24
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.86%EV -17.75%E -5.73%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.16%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -13.27%E -4.92%K -7.81%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-22 15:29
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -15.24%E -7.43%K -14.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.50%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-16 02:09
Betclic (FR)🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 25.54%EV -10.33%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.12%EV -15.24%E -7.43%K -14.51%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.34%EV -14.24%E -5.33%K -8.52%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-22 17:59
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.26%EV -15.10%E -4.72%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.02%EV -17.31%E -8.65%K -17.31%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.71%EV -14.88%E -5.61%K -9.02%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-16 02:10
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 26.72%EV -17.75%E -5.73%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.42%EV -17.31%E -8.65%K -17.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.86%EV -16.48%E -6.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%20.7%2026-03-22 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.55%186.6%2026-03-26 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.55%186.6%2026-03-26 14:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.55%189.4%2026-03-17 13:20