The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Gimnasia Mendoza v Newells Old Boys

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 42.30%2.36fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.20%42.29%42.18%42.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.202.2848.78%46.19%45.56%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newells Old Boys (Visit)

Prediction 26.94%3.71fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -0.840%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.74%26.95%27.16%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.403.6032.26%29.65%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.76%3.25fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -0.984%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.45%30.76%30.65%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.993.013.1535.71%33.49%33.22%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 42.30%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 26.94%; Draw: 30.76%. For Newells Old Boys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -3.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.65%EV -3.55%E -1.56%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -7.06%E -2.05%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.83%EV -5.25%E -1.71%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-21 02:28
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.70%EV -5.67%E -2.54%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.51%EV -8.95%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.79%EV -7.10%E -2.35%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-21 02:28
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -6.09%E -2.74%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.06%E -2.05%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -3.10%E -0.984%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 13:39
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -6.09%E -2.74%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.06%E -2.05%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -3.10%E -0.984%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 15:19
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.94%E -3.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.41%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.64%E -1.50%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-21 06:30
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -6.94%E -3.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.06%E -2.05%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.18%E -2.03%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-21 06:28
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.94%E -3.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.41%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.72%E -2.57%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 06:28
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.31%EV -7.36%E -3.36%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -3.02%E -0.840%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -10.79%E -3.72%K -5.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-21 01:59
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -12.45%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -4.64%E -1.50%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-21 06:53
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.10%E -3.37%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.72%E -2.57%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-21 06:29
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -11.17%E -5.32%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -16.49%E -5.32%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -13.87%E -4.95%K -7.70%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-21 06:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.68%EV -12.44%E -6.01%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.76%EV -7.60%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.56%EV -13.87%E -4.95%K -7.70%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-26 20:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.73%EV -13.28%E -6.48%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.54%EV -11.10%E -3.37%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.73%EV -12.33%E -4.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-21 01:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.32%EV -13.28%E -6.48%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.69%EV -12.45%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.98%EV -13.87%E -4.95%K -7.70%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-21 01:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-26 12:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-22 08:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-22 08:29