The School of Odds
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Gimnasia Mendoza v Newells Old Boys

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 21:30 UTC

Final: Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Newells Old Boys

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 38.76%2.58fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.923%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.69%38.85%38.86%42.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.352.392.5248.08%42.47%41.84%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newells Old Boys (Visit)

Prediction 30.58%3.27fair odd
EV +6.42%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +2.59%
Growth +0.166%

assuming max odds 3.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%30.51%30.43%32.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.083.103.4835.71%32.50%32.26%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.66%3.26fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.62%30.63%30.71%31.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.023.003.1534.72%33.06%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 38.76%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 30.58%; Draw: 30.66%. For Newells Old Boys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.51%EV -8.14%E -3.43%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.59%EV +6.42%E +1.85%K +2.59%G +0.166%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.90%EV -7.71%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-12 21:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -13.57%E -6.08%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV +2.45%E +0.730%K +1.04%G +0.025%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -3.42%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 21:19
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -13.57%E -6.08%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV +2.45%E +0.730%K +1.04%G +0.025%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -3.42%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 21:20
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.75%EV -3.10%E -1.24%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -0.612%E -0.188%K -0.272%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.45%EV -5.57%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-12 21:15
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -15.50%E -7.11%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -0.612%E -0.188%K -0.272%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-12 21:20
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.84%EV -6.20%E -2.56%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -3.67%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -8.02%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 21:25
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.84%EV -6.20%E -2.56%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -3.67%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -8.02%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 21:23
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.79%EV -17.06%E -7.97%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -3.67%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.81%EV -8.02%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-12 21:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.79%EV -17.06%E -7.97%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -3.67%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.81%EV -8.02%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-12 21:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.31%EV -2.33%E -0.923%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.84%EV -4.28%E -1.37%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.84%EV -4.03%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-12 21:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.31%EV -2.33%E -0.923%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.84%EV -4.28%E -1.37%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.84%EV -4.03%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-12 21:19
BetAnything🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.31%EV -2.33%E -0.923%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.84%EV -4.28%E -1.37%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.84%EV -4.03%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-12 21:19
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.98%E -2.91%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-12 21:14
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.98%E -2.91%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-12 21:24
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.98%E -2.91%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -8.02%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-12 21:23
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.75%E -3.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -11.09%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-12 21:09
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -14.73%E -6.70%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.09%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-12 12:58
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.09%EV -19.38%E -9.32%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.24%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.67%EV -9.55%E -3.24%K -4.90%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-12 21:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.95%EV -7.37%E -3.08%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.22%EV -5.81%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.83%EV -7.41%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-12 21:15
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -6.98%E -2.91%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -6.73%E -2.21%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 21:25
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.66%EV -6.98%E -2.91%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42%EV -6.73%E -2.21%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -8.02%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 21:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -3.10%E -1.24%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.49%E -2.13%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-12 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.04%E -2.06%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 21:19
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.98%E -2.91%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-12 21:24
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -7.75%E -3.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.02%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 21:19
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.92%E -3.79%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -8.02%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 21:19
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -10.85%E -4.72%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.70%E -4.06%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-12 21:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -10.85%E -4.72%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.70%E -4.06%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-12 21:24
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -6.98%E -2.91%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -9.79%E -3.32%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 21:19
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -5.04%E -2.06%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -9.79%E -3.32%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.02%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-12 21:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -8.92%E -3.79%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -9.79%E -3.32%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -9.55%E -3.24%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-12 21:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.47%EV -12.79%E -5.69%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.11%EV -9.79%E -3.32%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.42%EV -10.47%E -3.59%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-12 21:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -6.98%E -2.91%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.03%EV -12.84%E -4.51%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.93%EV -6.49%E -2.13%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-12 21:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.13%EV -8.92%E -3.79%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.00%EV -14.37%E -5.13%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.87%EV -8.02%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-12 21:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -10.85%E -4.72%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -14.37%E -5.13%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.48%EV -11.70%E -4.06%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-12 21:22
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.01%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.96%0.9%2026-10-12 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.46%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.29%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%1.6%2026-10-12 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.46%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.29%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%1.6%2026-10-12 21:24
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.64%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.20%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%1.9%2026-10-12 21:25
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.25%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.38%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.38%1.9%2026-10-12 21:25